Evan B. Smith on 19 Apr 2007
Nigerian citizens turned out to vote last week for their regional governors in a much heralded prequel to Saturday’s Presidential election. Unfortunately, those Nigerian voters who expected a free and peaceful election process were disappointed. Reports of widespread fraud have been punctuated by news of violent protests with over twenty Nigerians reported killed in the days following the poll.
The Independent Election Commission (INEC) has yet to announce formal results for all 34 states, but it seems clear that if the preliminary results are allowed to stand, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will score a major victory over the combined opposition parties. Naturally, the questionable administration of last week’s election raises several concerns about Saturday’s Presidential vote, which will be (if all goes well) the first peaceful handover of power in Nigeria since 1960.
In contrast to the democratic setbacks of last week’s vote, observers have witnessed several small victories for the rule of law and democratic governance in Nigeria in the lead up to the elections. Last year, President Obasanjo’s supporters made a concerted effort to have the constitution amended to allow him to serve a third term in office. Their attempts were blocked by the legislature in a move thought by many to indicate the advent of a true system of horizontal accountability among Nigerian state institutions.
President Obasanjo then trained his sights on Atiku Abubakar, the major opposition party candidate in Saturday’s presidential poll, by expelling him from the PDP and bringing him to trial on charges of corruption that, if true, would disqualify him as a potential president candidate. While the INEC initially agreed and banned Abubakar from contending, on Monday the Supreme Court reversed this ruling to allow Abubakar to run in Saturday’s election.
While these small victories for democracy seem diminished in light of the violence and fraud that punctuated last week’s elections, they remain important indicators of the relative levels of accountability between different branches of the federal government, an element of democratic governance lacking in many new democracies. These and other recent developments point to increasing parity and oversight among the several branches of the Nigerian federal government.
What does all this mean for Nigerian democracy? In short, it indicates a complex political system that’s in the midst of a major convulsion in terms of its power structures and institutional arrangements. It cannot be forgotten that whoever comes out of Saturday’s presidential election on top will control the vast resources of the Niger delta oilfields. In many ways it is not surprising that the legislative and judicial branches both moved to exert their authority prior to the election, ostensibly in hopes of institutionalizing a set of more equitable relationships that would secure their institutions as relevant centers of power under the new government.
Regardless of the true motives of the judicial and legislative elites, the result of their actions was a set of victories for democracy. Whether or not these small victories will be build upon or summarily reversed will likely depend on the results of Saturday’s election. Stay tuned!