“One day, the good Lord will take Fidel Castro away,”

Probably 11 US presidents have uttered words close to that during the reign of Castro, and it seems that Castro may outlast Bush as well. It is a good idea to consider post-Castro Cuba, and Bush presented his views on the topic at the Naval War College. President Bush argued that the US needs to be ready to support a new political system in Cuba after Castro, and warned against the increasing influence of leaders he argued was undermining democracy in other South American countries, including Venezuelan President Chavez.

Musharaff to Go the Way of the Mango Crate?

A NYTimes article yesterday put the internal dynamics of regime change in Pakistan in context of the current situation and history. As documented by the article, the military has historically played a crucial role in regime change in Pakistan. Musharraf is the fourth general to rule over Pakistan, and his predecessors did not meet a pleasant fate. Splits within the ruling military structure facilitated the transfers in two of the three previous general-lead regimes, and the article notes there are some signs that the Pakistani military is growing weary of General Musharraf. Not good news for Musharraf and potentially a huge problem for the US.

Iran’s Gas Rationing Continues, As Does Violence

Unrest grew in Iran as the gas rationing plan entered its third day. The rationing is an attempt by the Iranian government to reduce consumption in anticipation of a new round of international sanctions that may target Iran’s huge gas imports. Iran currently lacks the ability to refine enough gas to meet domestic demand and imports approximately 40% of its gas.  The government of Iran has provided generous subsidies to keep gas prices incredibly low, also tying into campaign promises by Ahmadinejad to increase subsidies. The press has defied government orders to not report unrest associated with the rationing. If continued, these protests could undermine the Ahmadinejad administration and lead to a potential change of president.