BREAKING: Pakistan Considers Imposing State of Emergency
Reports this morning indicate that President General Perez Musharraf is considering implementing a state of emergency. The Pakistani Minister for State Information announced that the move was being considered by the government in response to “external and internal threats” to Pakistan’s stability. Specifically, the minister mentioned the most recent unrest in the northwestern border areas and comments last week by US presidential candidate Barak Obama.
The state of emergency would provide Musharraf with a broad set of additional powers, including the ability to limit political activity, rallies, and information. However, implementing the state of emergency would set up what would seem to be a final showdown between the military backed government and pro-democracy moderates who would seek to challenge Musharraf’s decree in the courts.
The current stalemate in Pakistani politics may escalate and a resolutions seems to hinge primarily on Musharraf and his willingness to step down has head of the Pakistani army. Under the Pakistani constitution, it is illegal to hold both positions as president and Pervez has been able to receive a temporary exemption that runs out this year. His current term expires in the next few months and he is supposed to stand for election. The president is elected by the Pakistani parliament. However, Musharraf and moderates are quarreling over whether Musharraf can be reelected by the current sitting parliament whose term expires in October or if a new parliament needs to be selected first. Musharraf has sought reelection by the current parliament because he is confident that he can received enough support.
These issues, the concurrent occupation of head of the army and president and whether the current parliament can reelect Musharraf, are currently being considered by the Pakistani courts. The courts have emerged as a potential check against the Musharraf government, and they are expected to side with the moderates in the coming weeks.
This leaves President Musharraf in a difficult situation of his own making. He has failed to negotiate a transition with the exiled former prime minister Bhutto because she insists that he step down as head of the army. In exchange, she offered her party’s support for him in new presidential elections. Additionally, some recent reports detail a growing division within the Pakistani military as a significant portion of the younger officer coups are concerned with the social standing of the military.
Imposing a state of emergency would be a act of pure desperation that could tip Pakistan in a dangerous direction. The move would further alienate the Pakistani people from their government, potentially split the military institution, and force a showdown between moderates and Musharraf that could turn violent. Furthermore, these theatrics would do nothing to solve the festering problem on the Afghan-Pakistani border. A state of emergency would require the military to focus their attention and recourse on corralling and limiting the activities of innocent Pakistani citizens instead of focusing on dislodging the resurgent Taliban from the border region.
In short, if Musharraf declares a state of emergency that should make on thing absolutely clear to the US and the world. Musharraf is not a democract, he is a dictator. He does not care about making the world safe for moderate Pakistanis, he cares about staying in power with all the luxuries and trappings of heading the army and being president. He has not, is not, and will not be a reliable partner in the battle against the Taliban or Islamic radicals. He will pursue what is in his best interest alone, and for our own interests the US should not support or back his government anymore.
I’ll continue to follow this story as it develops, and only time will tell if Musharraf will follow a desperate path of a state of emergency. Also, it will be interesting to see the Bush administration’s next move. Will they vocally call on Musharraf to not implement a state of emergency, or will they keep quiet as Musharraf continues to struggle to hold onto power? Given their track record with Egypt and other “allies” on our GWOT, I’m not holding my breath.
