How Many Lawyers Does It Take to Change a Regime?
We may find out. This could be the opening volley of the “Black Tie Revolution.”
For the second time this year the lawyers of Pakistan have demonstrated that they may be the only group ready and willing to oppose Musharraf at every turn. The Pakistani Bar Association has organized protests and demonstrations already in multiple cities around the country, something that glorified Bhutto has yet to do. The Telegraph reports:
In Lahore, the scene of the worst violence, several people have been wounded and hundreds more arrested after police used force to disperse more than 2,000 lawyers who had gathered in the High Court.
Other protests have been reported in Multan, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi. Rawalpindi is essentially a garrison town outside of Islamabad and the location of the Pakistani military government. Multiple Supreme Court justices are under arrest after refusing to take an oath to Musharraf. Only 5 of the original 17 Supreme Court judges agreed to take the new oath.Â
So far I’ve seen two accounts of government agents backing down after groups refused to comply with their orders. The NYTimes reports (emphasis mine):
Earlier, the director of the Aaj channel, Wamiq Zuberi, said a magistrate accompanied by five buses of gun-toting police officers showed up at the studios on Saturday night and tried to confiscate an outdoor broadcasting van. The magistrate did not have a warrant and the workers at the studio stood their ground, forcing the officials to leave empty-handed, Mr. Zuberi said.
And the NYTtimes in a separate story notes (emphasis mine):
The government officials ordered the editor of the newspaper, Nazeer Leghari, not to print a supplement, and police threatened to close down the plant, according to a statement issued by the Jang Group. When the newspaper’s management refused to obey, the officials withdrew, the statement said.
The bold actions of the Pakistani lawyers and media may hopefully show that Musharraf has no clothes, so to speak. Sometimes it is the seemingly irrational acts of individuals against regimes that demonstrate to the rest of the society that opposition is possible. Let’s hope that the political parties of Pakistan will be inspired to join the demonstrations.
Why did the Musharraf government choose to declare martial law? Allegedly because extremists threatened the nation. Were these Islamic extremists? Hardly, although Musharraf and the Pakistani military have repeatedly failed to defeat rebels in the Northwest Province. Instead of the security of the Pakistani public, the impetus for the state of emergency was Musharraf’s own job security:
A close aide to General Musharraf said the Pakistani leader had decided to declare an emergency when he was told last week by a Supreme Court justice that the court would rule within days that he was ineligible to continue serving as president. The ruling would have been unanimous, according to the aide.
As noted in the Democratic Piece before, the United States was able prevent an previous attempt in early August to declare martial law when Secretary Rice made a brief, 17-minute phone call to General Musharraf. Why did the Pakistani military not balk this time? Because they know that President Bush’s freedom agenda is dead:
In Islamabad, aides to General Musharraf — who had dismissed pleas on Friday from Ms. Rice and Adm. William J. Fallon, the senior military commander in the Middle East, to avoid the state-of-emergency declaration — said they had anticipated that there would be few real consequences.
They called the American reaction “muted,†saying General Musharraf had not received phone calls of protest from Mr. Bush or other senior American officials. In unusually candid terms, they said American officials supported stability over democracy.
The Netherlands is the only country to so far announce and immediate suspension of all aid to Pakistan. The United Kingdom and the United states are merely “reviewing” their aid to the Musharraf regime. The NYTimes noted today that the US has provided more than $10 billion dollars to Pakistan, more than 90% of that going directly to support the military government (emphasis mine):
While the total dollar amount of American aid to Pakistan is unclear, a study published in August by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated it to be “at least $10 billion in Pakistan since 9/11, excluding covert funds.†Sixty percent of that has gone to “Coalition Support Funds,†essentially direct payments to the Pakistani military, and 15 percent to purchase major weapons systems (me - again, the military). Another 15 percent has been for general budget support for the Pakistani government (me - again, the military); only 10 percent for development or humanitarian assistance.
When will our funding of authoritarianism stop?
Miki Wilkins on 05 Nov 2007 at 12:47 pm #
This is an excellent piece, Danny. I can’t help but see major parallels with Egypt and the US’s continuation of a staggering amount of aid to Egypt despite major backsliding toward closed authoritarianism.
Evan B. Smith on 05 Nov 2007 at 12:56 pm #
I think Danny points to the most important variable in this entire series of events in his examples of the media refusing to comply with the regime’s demands on curtailing free speech, and the police forces backing down.
It all comes down to whether or not the regime is bluffing (a variable which itself can change over time), and whether or not elements of the media, civil society, and (hopefully) the political opposition try to call it. So far it seems neither the regime nor the opposition are willing to push the situation to a point where there’s no turning back.
We’ve seen these situations go both ways in recent years, however, with the color revolutions as examples of the opposition calling the bluff, and Burma (and others) as an example of a regime willing to use lethal force. We’ll have to see which way this one goes.
Adil Chaudhry on 25 Dec 2007 at 4:44 pm #
Yes, it certainly seems to be the PLOT….buy and manipulate the Lawyers as an excuse for regime change in a sovereign country of pakistan! We LOVE and support Musharraf!