The Democratic Piece

Today, Musharraf reached a new level of expertise in repression as he barricaded Benazir Bhutto in her house in Islamabad, thwarting scheduled protests with the aid of armored vehicles, dump trucks, barbed wire, tear gas, and thousands of policemen.   The sequencing of events, reports suggest, may point to a cooptation of the opposition by Musharraf; for example, though unable to organize the larger rally as planned, Bhutto was allowed to make an opposition speech later this afternoon, perhaps indicating that she was cooperating with Musharraf and his henchmen.  She was released late in the evening after being detained for hours.

Whether or not Bhutto is cooperating with Musharraf, it appears that he is clearly in complete control of the opposition.  In fact, all of these events are unfolding according not only to Musharraf’s plan but also according to the political science literature as well.  As multiple scholars have asserted, perhaps Daniel Brumberg in his work on “liberalized autocracy” most notably, Musharraf is employing a tactic which works in his favor:  giving the opposition some space to mobilize, thereby reducing its sense of urgency, muddying its objectives, stabilizing the situation, and keeping the power in his hands.  A fragmented opposition elite and a sense of helplessness and fear of repression on the part of ordinary Pakistanis are creating a situation in which most Pakistanis believe that the best choice for the future of democracy in the country–protest–is the worst choice individually and for their own families.  It will take a few brave (or foolhardy) individuals to raise the level of contention and bring the situation to a tipping point or critical mass at which repression for Musharraf becomes too costly.  Such a solution is not a policy prescription, it’s a test of human will and bravery.