Tomorrow was supposed to see Nepal elect a constituent assembly. But the Maoist arm of the Communist Party of Nepal has refused to participate unless Prime Minister Koirala and the Seven Party Alliance (or six, or eight, depending on whom you ask) agree to (1) abolish the monarchy and (2) use closed-list proportional representation in one district. There seems to be consensus on the first point. Now there are stirrings in the SPA of a compromise on the electoral system: mixed-member proportional.

At an interaction held in the capital on Friday, Maoist chairman Prachanda had called for reviewing their agreements with the seven (now six) parties and the government. “We are also in favour of reviewing the agreements as there are still problems in their implementation,” KC said.

President of the Janamorcha Nepal Amik Sherchan said directives of the special session of the House could be given a constitutional status by incorporating a provision in the interim constitution that “Nepal is federal democratic republic state” to be implemented by the first meeting of the constituent assembly.

Sherchan said the Maoists could be convinced on MMP (Mixed Member Proportional) system provided that the government agreed to fully implement all the agreements reached in the past.

The Maoists’ obsession with proportionality is counterintuitive given their rural base of support. One would expect them to benefit from a large nominal tier of small districts. (Indeed, that’s what we were blogging earlier this year.) Maybe they know something we don’t - that they don’t have pluralities in those districts, or that they have significant bases of support in the major towns and cities (they’re “packed” in Congress-speak). Or maybe nobody knows anything, and nobody wants to bank on the disproportionality that comes with districts any smaller than the whole country. That would make sense given the Maoists and one or two other groups have not yet faced an electoral contest.

But it doesn’t make sense for the Seven Party Alliance who’s refused to meet the Maoists’ demand - unless their refusal is grounded in something less tangible than a seat outcome (credible commitment to make the institutions work, respecting the electoral commission’s hard work to date).

Regionally disaggregated data is proving hard to find. IDEA has a helpful and recent survey of public opinion in Nepal. Here’s a summary of findings from the Nepali Times.

Here is Election Guide’s page on Nepal, but it doesn’t seem right. From what I can tell, a unicameral interim parliament is running the country according to an interim constitution. King Gyanendra and the upper house are sitting on the sidelines, and the military (generally supporting the monarchy) is quiet for now.

Here is the new electoral commission. Note how miffed they are at the Maoists’ intransigence; they’ve been laying the groundwork for an election, after all, with the help of IFES. Here’s the old EC website.

If anyone knows where to find regional data on party ID and public opinion, please leave a comment or drop an e-mail.