Candidates running for their party’s presidential nomination have two distinct goals.  The first is the formal goal of obtaining party delegates.  The second is winning the informal quest for momentum with the end result of obtaining the status of inevitability.  In previous primaries, the informal pursuit of momentum has led to the attainment of inevitability, and consequently, party delegates.  Candidates’ decisions to embark on this path has been reinforced by the non-stop news cycle that modern technology has rendered ever so hungry.  Even in the Republican race, where, due to the majoritarian system of awarding delegates used in a number of states a candidate can trounce his opponent on Super Tuesday, the rules of the momentum game do not necessitate inevitability.  How is this possible?

In this morning’s New York Times, Adam Nagourney warns that: “the winner of the states is probably going to be known well before the delegate counts are finished, and that is going to color the way the results are reported on television and in newspapers.”  As such, on the Republican side, Nagourney explains that the two most important states to watch are California and Massachusetts: the former because polls show that Romney may pull out a tight victory there, and the latter because a McCain victory in Romney’s home state, combined with some other expected victories by McCain, could spell the end of Romney’s White House bid.  In the Republican race, acquiring delegates is an element in an equation that leads to one candidate’s popular image of inevitability.  Yet, a victory for Romney in California or his defeat in Massachusetts are the pivotal points that are likely to swing momentum in his or his opponent’s favor.

The Democratic race is similarly dependent on momentum, and perhaps even more so due to the PR system of delegate allocation mandated by the party in each state.  As a result, neither candidate is likely to have a significant lead in the delegate count when the results of Super Tuesday are finally tallied.  Thus, the real story is about momentum.  Because Clinton possessed double-digit leads in a number of Super Tuesday states until recently, the question is how close Obama will come to beating Clinton in the popular votes in important states, even though these overall totals do not matter for the delegate race.  If Obama wins, or even comes close to winning, in states like California, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts, then he will continue to ride the wave of momentum that has helped him cut into Clinton’s leads across the country.

The power of momentum is in maintaining control of the news cycle.  Consider how the Obama campaign has succeeded in this venture since trouncing Clinton unexpectedly in South Carolina (despite adding marginally to his delegate count).  Obama’s impressive victory speech was embraced by the press and has received over 500,000 hits on youtube.com.  He then received the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy, who called him “A President Like My Father,” and Ted Kennedy, the longtime senator and democratic party institution.  This was followed by the announcement in late January that Obama received donations of $32 million in that month alone.  Since these events, all of which graced the front pages of newspapers and websites as well as taking up valuable airtime on television and radio politics shows, the Obama campaign has continued to dominate the news through reports on the massive crowds he has been able to draw at campaign events and the campaigning of his surrogates, such as Oprah Winfrey and the Kennedys (including Maria Schriver).  Not only has Obama gained momentum, but his momentum has become the actual story. 

In this unusual primary season, delegates may come to play a role if none of the candidates are able to embrace convince Americans of their inevitability.  But, if Obama’s momentum is substantiated by the popular votes in some of the states mentioned, he will have broken the early portrayals of Clinton as the inevitable victor, and could be on his way to embracing the democratic presidential nomination.  Formally, he’ll have to obtain enough delegates for this to happen, but informally, he will already have done so.