I want to be clear that my comments are personal observations only. They do not represent any official view of Democracy International.

Today was depressing. We met with the US Ambassador, leaders from two main political parties, the Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q; Musharraf’s Party) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP; the late Benazir Bhutto’s party), representatives from the electoral commission, the UNDP, and the Free and Fair Election Network (a consortium of NGOs). These briefings clarified a number of issues. First, Musharraf is reluctantly holding these elections. Second, the election is not going to be free and fair; the bar is a credible election. I think credible means an outcome that does lot lead to more chaos than currently exists. Third, the country is holding its breath going into these elections. Suicide bombings at political rallies have become commonplace and the military is on its highest state of emergency for the election (i.e., mobilizing for a war). The hope seems to be for a relatively peaceful election with reasonable voter turnout.

However, it is the context of the election that is most troubling. Pakistan is entering the election facing serious political and security challenges. Suicide bombings have skyrocketed over the past year and it is not clear why. The rationale for them (other than creating chaos and discrediting the government) and the reason for targeting innocent Pakistanis is elusive. Those who attend political rallies in this environment are brave souls. It is likely that the bombings are related to the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan as sympathy for the group is strong along the border region between the two countries. Moreover, given that the Pakistan’s Inter-services Intelligence (ISI; the country’s military intelligence agency) helped the Taliban come to power, the Pakistani military is not the most obvious choice for dismantling the organization. Neither of these explains the logic of the terror attacks, however. In addition, because Pakistan uses a first-past-the-post voting system and because its political parties are fragmented, the election, especially in rural areas, is turning on purely local concerns. Consequently, at a time when Pakistan is facing enormous political and security challenges, the election in the eyes of many voters is about patronage and local political power. To put it simply, the political situation seems to be disintegrating fast.

Tomorrow I will be traveling to Lahore, the city where I will be observing the election. I am looking forward to experiencing Pakistan’s domestic airline industry. I hope it provides a bit of relief from the country’s heavy politics.