Comments on: Nepal Maoists outdo expectations under FPP; CA majority likely up for grabs http://democraticpiece.com/2008/04/21/nepal-maoists-outdo-expectations-under-fpp-ca-majority-likely-up-for-grabs/ Tentative conclusions on democracy & governance Thu, 20 Nov 2008 17:19:36 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Jack http://democraticpiece.com/2008/04/21/nepal-maoists-outdo-expectations-under-fpp-ca-majority-likely-up-for-grabs/#comment-1234 Jack Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:29:08 +0000 http://democraticpiece.com/?p=430#comment-1234 Based on that survey Bob found, probably yes, with the continued caveat that data on party ID did not exist. (There had not been an election where the Maoists contested.) The Maoists not only outperformed expectations; they outperformed a projection of 10% in the nominal tier. They also campaigned with a message of standing up for the oppressed. Nepal is a divided society, and much of the political elite had been around for a long time. So it is furthermore reasonable to suspect broad support. I agree about the political unlikelihood of malapportionment. UML-Maoist, after all, was protesting SSDs in any proportion. Democracy groups and Koirala's coalition must have had to demonstrate fairness to bring them on board. According to <a href="http://www.aceproject.org/epic-en/bd/Epic_view/NP" rel="nofollow">ACE</a>, the only boundary delimitation criterion equal population with some toleration of malapportionment for underpopulated areas. But this is under the 1990 constitution. <a href="http://www.election.gov.np/NP/legal/dileneation.php" rel="nofollow">Information</a> on the most recent redistricting is in Nepalese. Based on that survey Bob found, probably yes, with the continued caveat that data on party ID did not exist. (There had not been an election where the Maoists contested.) The Maoists not only outperformed expectations; they outperformed a projection of 10% in the nominal tier.

They also campaigned with a message of standing up for the oppressed. Nepal is a divided society, and much of the political elite had been around for a long time. So it is furthermore reasonable to suspect broad support.

I agree about the political unlikelihood of malapportionment. UML-Maoist, after all, was protesting SSDs in any proportion. Democracy groups and Koirala’s coalition must have had to demonstrate fairness to bring them on board.

According to ACE, the only boundary delimitation criterion equal population with some toleration of malapportionment for underpopulated areas. But this is under the 1990 constitution. Information on the most recent redistricting is in Nepalese.

]]> By: MSS http://democraticpiece.com/2008/04/21/nepal-maoists-outdo-expectations-under-fpp-ca-majority-likely-up-for-grabs/#comment-1232 MSS Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:20:17 +0000 http://democraticpiece.com/?p=430#comment-1232 The Maoists could have won that many SSDs only by winning well beyond their base, right? (And likely in such areas, against divided opposition.) I don't think any reporting on the war ever claimed they held areas accounting for close to half the population. Or perhaps the districts were significantly malapportioned to favor the areas they dominated during the war? That actually seems rather unlikely (politically). The Maoists could have won that many SSDs only by winning well beyond their base, right? (And likely in such areas, against divided opposition.) I don’t think any reporting on the war ever claimed they held areas accounting for close to half the population.

Or perhaps the districts were significantly malapportioned to favor the areas they dominated during the war? That actually seems rather unlikely (politically).

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