The New York Times reported today that Angola prohibited the offloading of the arms shipment destined for Zimbabwe. The Chinese vessel carrying the cargo - the “ship of shame” as it’s called in African newspapers - previously attempted to unload the 77 tons of arms - including rockets, ammunition, and bombs - in Durban, South Africa, but was blocked by dock workers.

Angola, a longtime ally of Zimbabwe, was probably Zimbabwe’s best hope for receiving this arms shipment. After Durban, the vessel bypassed Namibia when the Legal Assistance Centre of Namibia announced in advance that it would thwart the ship from unloading. After a second failure to unload, the ship will likely now return to China.

This is a critical point in the aftermath of Zimbabwe’s election debacle. Mugabe’s prospects for retaining his power are looking more and more grim. Lacking a definitive victory, Mugabe’s regime has resorted to violence to maintain its grip on the country. The Chinese arms shipment was key to the regime’s use of force. Without it, the regime may be dead in the water.

So what happens now that Mugabe’s regime has lost the election and cannot maintain its use of force? As Jack suggested several days ago, a democratic transition may not be so far out of the realm of possibility.