Siege in Lahore Points to Challenges in Pakistan

Posted on March 31st, 2009 rtio No comments  Print This Post

The Obama administration’s new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan seems to take heed of observations echoed by many South Asia specialists. In Pakistan, the administration has tentatively bet on Zardari’s civilian administration to lead efforts to battle extremism within Pakistani territory. The aid package of $1.5 billion per annum for 5 years focuses on development rather than military aid. This is a welcome change given Musharraf’s proclivity for military spending. However, as most development practitioners note, setting realistic conditionalities and metrics is a difficult task, one made more difficult by the sheer size of the development challenge in Pakistan.

Secondly, the US is aiming to bring in other powers in dealing with the region’s problems. In Pakistan, the US is hoping that military posturing between India and Pakistan can be reduced so that the Pakistani military can focus on the militant threat within its own borders. This requires making headway in Kashmir, which did enjoy a relatively calm cease fire until it expired last year. However, the military has long been an independent actor in Pakistan, and shifting its raison d’être is sure to have staunch opposition. The military continues to operate as a state within a state in Pakistan, which may lead to an awkward marriage between promoting economic development and reducing military funding.

Yesterday’s police academy standoff in Lahore exemplifies the gravity of the problem in Pakistan. On the one hand is the Pakistani government’s impotence, on the other is the resistance that increased US actions sparks. While the security forces prevailed relatively quickly and decisively, the militants may still have their way in undermining the government and terrorizing the state in the long run.

The realization that the issues in the region cannot be dealt with by military means alone is a positive developments, but, in this writer’s opinion, the prospects remain bleak in Pakistan.