Iran.

Posted on June 16th, 2009 Austan Mogharabi No comments  Print This Post

Before I write anything, an apology to readers…this post might be a bit scattered as there is simply way too much information right now and I’m finding it hard to write dispassionately about recent events.  I’ll write some background, followed by why the election numbers are questionable.  Then I’ll describe the sequence of events and where we are now.

Background: Over the weekend, President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad “won” re-election to the Presidency with 60%+ of the overall vote in the first round.  Needless to say, in the weeks leading up to the election, most observers thought it would be a close race that needed to go to the second round (where the field is narrowed to two contenders).  As the Islamic regime says it happened, Ahmadinejad won 60+%, Mousavi won 32%, with Karroubi and Razaei winnin about 1% each.  On top of the sheer fabrication of those numbers, the “official” tally showed Ahmadinejad winning in ALL of Iran’s provinces (even the hometown of Mousavi – an Azeri – and Karroubi - an ethnic Lur).  Right. 

Why the numbers aren’t right: While some suggest that Ahmadinejad might have won the election anyway (I doubt it, but it’s possible), the sheer percentages in the provinces and regions is unbelievable.  For more on that, look here for the best analysis available on the numbers.  Another suggestion by some Iran observers is that only “upper class” or “middle class” rich people are rioting and that the poor support Ahmadinejad and put him into office.  I disagree with that completely but will leave it to Juan Cole and Michael Totten/Laura Secor to dispute the claim since they do it better than I could.

What happened next: Unfortunately, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, came out and certified the election count…twice.  That, in and of itself, was very odd.  Traditionally, the Interior Ministry releases the results, the Guardian Council certifies them and then the Supreme Leader approves the winner.  Why did they skip these steps? I don’t know…but they did.

As a result, people took to the streets (and they’re still there, by the way).  And when I say people, I mean millions (at least from according to sources here, here and here).  All across Iran.  Just as an aside, here are some of the chants going around: “We will fight, we will die, we will get our votes back”; “Down with the Dictator”.  Also, in a move reminiscent of the 1979 Revolution, people are going to their roofs and chanting “Allah u Akbar” (God is Great).

Glimmer of Hope?: Some in the West, though I guarantee you not in Iran, took heart when the Supreme Leader called on the Guardian Council to “look into the results.”  While it sounds great, it means almost nothing.  To understand why, you must understand the Guardian Council.  This body, intensely powerful in Iran, runs the elections in every conceivable way: they determine who can run, they determine what campaign slogans/advertisements are allowed, they conduct the election engineering and they certify the election results.  Unrelated to elections, the Guardian Council is also empowered to veto any legislation coming from the Majlis (Parliament).  The Guardian Council is composed of 12 clerics.  Six are appointed directly by the Supreme Leader and six are appointed by the Head of Judiciary, who is in turn appointed by the Supreme Leader.  In essence, the Supreme Leader controls 12 of 12 seats.  (Here is Gary Sick talking about the likelihood of the Guardian Council nullifying the elections).

Another source of hope is the fact that Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former President and one of the founders of the Islamic Republic, has joined the opponents of the regime in contesting the election.  Rafsanjani, in no way a “revolutionary” and still a believer in Islamic governance, is the head of the Assembly of Experts.  Why is that a source of hope?  Well, the Assembly of Experts has the power to appoint and remove the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.  If he manages to get enough support from the 84 member Assembly, he could conceivably remove Khamenei, nullify the election, and call for a recount.  Put me down as skeptical of this plan succeeding.  While Khamenei and his cohort were not wise in the method in which they rigged the election, he demonstrated one crucial point in his activity: keeping his power is the most important factor for Khamenei. 

There is simply no way Khamenei, not to mention the IRGC and Ahmadinejad, would allow Rafsanjani to pull this off if they thought he could get enough votes.  I would go so far as to say they would kill him first.  But it won’t come to that.  Some might wonder, “well why not?”.  Simple: he can’t get enough votes because the IRGC, which controls the majority of the economy at this point (construction, military weapons, nuclear program, etc), also has a strong voice among the “experts” on the Assembly of Experts.  I should say again, this is simply my opinion, so take it for what it is worth.

Ahmadinejad enters with his words of wisdom:In a way only Ahmadinejad could, Ahmadinejad downplayed the importance of the protests and declared that Iran is “the most stable country in the world” and that the protests are like the demonstrations of fans after a soccer match. 

Meanwhile, rumors were flying that Mousavi was under house arrest.  Whether that was true, is unclear.  Mousavi did show up at an election rally on Monday, however, suggesting that he was either released as a result of public pressure or was never under house arrest.

Where are we now?What is known is that the IRGC (Revolutionary Guards or Pasdaran) and the basiji (basically roving bands of thugs with clubs, machetes and guns that are ultra-loyal to the regime) have been authorized to use live fire in the crowds…and that people have died.  Numbers vary, but I would estimate somewhere between 10 and 20 (from unconfirmed sources) with hundreds having disappeared (look here, here or here).  That’s not to mention the high-level reformists who have been arrested.

Additionally, there are reports that IRGC and basiji are ransacking University’s, kidnapping students and destroying the computers in Esfahan, Tabriz and Tehran (the capital).  Also, people using Twitter are saying that the government is blocking cell phones, text messaging, facebook, Gmail, and confiscating satellites and jamming radio signals.  Jamming the radio signals, blocking cell phones and Internet sites is normal fare for the Iranians.  Even going and stealing satellite dishes has happened in the past.  Apparently, however, this is on a more massive scale than ever before.

With regards to the U.S. response – which is much less important than what is happening on the ground – I am torn.  I think that Obama has a tough line to walk.  As many commentators have noted, we don’t want to make this about us and offer Ahmadinejad a “political football” to use against the demonstrators (by calling them puppets of the Great Satan).  So, declaring the election fraudulent probably isn’t a good idea.  On the other hand, it would probably mean a lot to those protesting to know that people are with them.  I think Obama’s response last night was perfectly fine…though I might have liked to see a little more “we are all Iranians” type talk – leave aside the criticism of elections but let Iranians know we’re with them.

HAPPENING NOW: Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, who was originally meant to succeed Khomeini to the position of Supreme Leader until he voiced concerns over the Islamic propriety of the role, has made a statement here.  Basically says Ahmadinejad’s victory is a lie.  As the second-most important figure in Shia Islam alive (behind Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq), this is a huge development and a much needed boost for the opponents of Ahmadinejad I am sure.