Roger Cohen on Iran

Posted on June 24th, 2009 Austan Mogharabi No comments  Print This Post

Over the last few weeks, Roger Cohen has written several pieces about the aftermath of the Iranian election.  His latest is a solid analysis of the negative consequences for the current regime from the violence and killing the past few days. 

Cohen identifies five “principal factors” that contribute to the decrease in power:

1. The role of the Supreme Leader is now forever tarnished.  While Khomeini was known as a great (if ruthless) moderator between different factions, Khamenei appears the champion of one (Ahmadinejad and the far-right).

2. People who were willing to tolerate the regime in return for a modicum of freedom and elections (no matter how rigged in the regime’s favor) are no longer silent and “acquiescent.”

3. Ahmadinejad’s, or, more accurately, the IRGC’s, power grab is alienating the more moderate members of the governing apparatus (such as Rafsanjani, Khatami, etc).

4. Internationally, Iran’s rhetoric is weakened greatly by the government perceived ruthlessness and violence towards its own people:  Up until now, Iran held a substantial amount of power in the “Arab” street.  After their actions now, many of the moderate Arabs who were pro-Iran might reconsider having seen what “Islamic” governance and the Islamic Revolution are all about.

5. The next generation of Iranians – those who will take up government and run the country – have now firmly aligned against the current regime:  I think it is fair to say that this happened far before the election, but the election firmed the resolve of those previously against the “Islamic Republic” and likely drove numerous moderate conservatives into the opposition camp.

I would add the following:

6. Revealed the dependence of the current regime on the IRGC and the basiji:  In particular, the IRGC have now firmly aligned with the Ahmadinejad camp.  They were there previously, in my opinion, but the post-election events have confirmed that for the people of Iran and external governments.

7. Revealed the strong connection between the IRGC and the regime:  Over the last 4 years, the IRGC’s influence has grown through the economy and many attribute this to the influence of Ahmadinejad (and his relation with Khamenei).  The IRGC has now shown itself to be vested in the survival of the current government (and the economic policies of that government).

8. Demonstrated the cunning ruthlessness of the regime.  I am always amazed by the amount of people who worry about another “Tiananmen Square” incident.  They do not understand the regime.  Khamenei and his ilk know better.  Rather, disappearances is the new name of the game.  Firing on crowds in public is bad PR.  But kidnapping and later burying the dead in unmarked graves?

Reports from some in Iran confirm these types of tactics, as does this article written by a dissenter in hiding.  The massive death tolls will not come from the streets.  The deaths will pass silently, with few to bear witness, from places such as Evin Prison.  In these places, people simply disappear.