Iran Update

Posted on July 2nd, 2009 Austan Mogharabi No comments  Print This Post

While the huge protests and clashes between security forces and protestors have receded, the movement started by reform candidate Mir Hussein Mousavi is not finished.

Here is just a brief round-up of recent news and evidence that we haven’t seen the last of the green clad crowds (I am bolding those that should receive particular attention):

The Guardian Council certifiedthe election.  There is no surprise here.  But as the article point out, Khamenei has now attached his future to that of Ahmadinejad.  Great analysis here:

One positive outcome of this election debacle is that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has now tied himself to Mr Ahmadinejad’s economic mismanagement. Every uptick in unemployment is a knock against the current power structure. Every bit of inflation is a reminder of the system’s flaws. These are things Iranians deal with everyday, and they are more personal and affecting than the country’s relations with America or Israel. So the American administration should quietly do what it can to foment the economic undoing of the regime, but otherwise get out of the way. Because in many ways, the regime is already digging its own grave.

The Jerusalem Post is reportingthat six Mousavi supporters were publicly hanged.  This is not confirmed, but the Iranian government has often used public demonstrations (stoning, beatings, etc) as a method to keep the populace compliant.

More reports of election tampering continue to come out of Iran (for example, the pictures and reports here show, definitively, that not all was kosher).

The stories here and here are heartbreaking.  These two 18 year old kids, one brutally raped and beaten, and another killed (three shots to the chest), join Neda as examples of the Iranian governments brutality.

Conservative cleric Haddi Ghaffari rips Khamenei for his behavior over the election.  Ghaffari is by no means reformist, pragmatist or liberal.  He is further right than Rafsanjani and was instrumental in the creation of Hezbollah.  It will not be easy for the regime to paint him as a “puppet of the West.”

Khatami. Mousavi and Karroubi are becoming noticeably harsher in their public comments.  Look here and here.

Solid article here from Roger Cohen with some fascinating reporting.  It has been interesting to see his change in mindset throughout the entire “Velvet coup” and his realization of the real purpose of elections in Iran.  His final suggestion is to isolate Iran and let them writhe.  I am inclined to agree, though I am not sure to what end.  Isolation will not slow their nuclear pursuits and there is no way to crash the Iranian economy (such as oil blockades) without doing huge harm to the world economy and other American interests.  (That also ignores the fact that China and Russia probably would not allow it).  On the other hand, negotiations are moot now.  The regime’s message is clear: “we are committed to increasing our regional influence through subversion of other governments and achieving nuclear power status.  Oh, and we hate America.”

As Thomas Friedman wrote a few weeks back: let’s get the leverage before we start the talking.  The only way to get Iran’s government to alter course is through leverage and power.  Otherwise, you will just be wasting your time, legitimating a despicable regime and betraying the hopes of a generation of Iranians who stood up for a better life.

(Side note - I know I still owe you “The Death of the ‘Islamic Republic’ – Part II.”  I promise to have it up by this weekend.  Enjoy your Fourth of July!)