$5 Million Dollar Man

Is Joaquim Chissano a modern day George Washington? Lead his country to independence? Check. Played a crucial role in resolving a civil war that lasted for 16 years? Check. Becoming the second president of Mozambique, a newly established country, and stepping down after 18 years of relatively successful governing even though you could have constitutionally sought an additional 5 years? Check. Once beat Chuck Norris in a fight by simply taking off his jacket in a threatening manner? Ok, well I do not know that for certain, but I just added it to Wikipedia.
(UPDATE : That didn’t take long – already off.)

Former UN secretary general Kofi Annan, Mo Ibrahim and his eponymous foundation think that Chissano is a swell guy. In fact, they awarded Chissano with a $5 million dollar prize because of his “achievements in bringing peace, reconciliation, stable democracy and economic progress to his country”. Mo Ibrahim is a Sudanese billionaire who established this prize to acknowledge and reward African leaders who have practiced good governance. According to the Mo Ibrahim Foundation website, a committee of six “distinguished” experts evaluate all eligible candidate and select a winner. In order to qualify, a candidate must have left office within the last three calendar years. The official prize fine print states that Chissano will receive $5 million over the next ten years and then $200,000 annually for the rest of his life.

Mo Ibrahim states that his goal with the prize is to create and incentive for African leaders to govern better. The eligible candidates are assessed based on their scores from “The Ibrahim Index of African Governance.” According to the most recent Ibrahim Index, Mauritius was number one and Somalia was last. Mozambique placed 23rd.

Chissano was obviously not awarded the prize for being humble. After finally being notified during a trip to a remote section of Uganda while working on a peace agreement, Chissano reportedly replied:

“I am not surprised … I have received many other rewards for the same reasons. Even before I left power I had been praised on several occasions and I have the appreciation of my colleagues, other African leaders,”

Is this a smart plan? Does $5 million provide a strong incentive for African rulers to govern better? I dunno, but I bet that Idi Amin fled Uganda with a lot more than $5 million. However, Mo Ibrahim may has inadvertently provided me with an incentive to overthrow some African government and give myself a shot at winning the prize. After all, I sit here and talk about how I could do so much better than Mugabe, Al Bashir, or Qaddafi – why not put Ibrahim money where my mouth is?

Is oil a blessing or a curse for Uganda?

The recent discovery of oil in western Uganda has led to debates about the “oil curse” in Africa, with particular reference to the cases of Nigeria, the Sudan and the lesser known Equatorial Guinea. The oil curse could result in similar conditions of corruption, Dutch disease, and conflict seen in other African oil producers. Despite only being in the exploration phase, several people have recently been killed in the Lake Albert region, where the oil is located, including a British oil contractor.
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Democracy Daily Briefing – 7.4.07

Africa Union Talks Go No Where

A summit regarding the establishment of a single African state ended this week with little accomplished. Few expected any meaningful agreement to arise from the talks and they were not disappointed. The group agreed to set a time table to discuss a future continent-wide agreement. Disagreements exist over whether the pan-African organization should be limited to economic integration or seek a larger political arrangement.

Stores Empty as Zimbabwe Implements Price Controls

Mugabe’s government began to crack down this week on stores and merchants that failed to implement the price controls announced last week. Stores have begun to run out of supplies as people have taken advantage of the artificially low prices. Over twenty shop keepers have been arrested for not complying with the orders. These orders are unsustainable in the long-run and shortages may lead to increased unrest.

Elections in Conflict Areas Are Invalid

Jarrett Blanc of the Council on Foreign Relations and the US Institute of Peace gave an interesting interview to Radio Free Europe about the validity of elections in conflict situations. An important feature that Blanc returns to is the absence of the rule of law in the electoral environment. Furthermore, consideration of the broader context of the conflict and that elections may destabilize or alter the balance in a dangerous manner, especially when the legal institutions necessary for a rule of law are nonexistent. This is a very interesting read.

Morning Round Up – 6.16.07

Palestinian Split Hardens

Hamas has continued to consolidate power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas now controls all of the Gaza Strip and has taken over the security service buildings and the presidential buildings. On Friday Hamas gunmen rounded up remaining Fatah leaders in Gaza. Initial reports indicated that the prisoners may be executed, but Hamas has since announced a “general amnesty” for Fatah fighters in Gaza. They have since been released.

In the West Bank President Abbas demonstrated Fatah’s strength implementing a state of emergency with patrols of Fatah soldiers. Fatah actions against Hamas’ legislative offices and personnel continued, and Fatah’s forces stormed the parliament and government buildings previously under Hamas’ control and fired all Hamas affiliated staff. Reportedly, during the storming of the parliament building the deputy prime minister was almost arrested, but senior Fatah officers at the site stopped the detention.

Both Fatah and Hamas continued to argue over the legitimate form of government. On Thursday President Abbas decreed that parliament be dissolved, but Hamas rejected this order as hasty and asserted that their governing legitimacy is greater than Abbas’ due to the 2005 elections. Abbas as appointed Salam Fayyad as interim Prime Minister, but Hamas has rejected this appointment. Mr. Fayyad has been described as a technocrat and a moderate and previously served as finance minister in the previous “unity” government.

President Abbas has received the most international support so far, including pledges of support from the quartet (US, EU, UN, & Russia), the Arab League, and Israel. The US, Israel, and the EU have pledged to support and bolster President Abbas. Supposedly, Israel is planning to release to Abbas a large portion of the taxes that it collects for Palestine and has refused to distribute since Hamas gained a majority a year and a half ago.

Turkish President Vetos Bill on Popular Election, Referendum Fight Lies Ahead

As expected, President Sezer of refused to sign a bill that passed by the parliament that would require the Turkish president to be directly elected by the public, but Sezer has vetoed a similar bill once. Under Turkish law the president is not permited to veto the same law twice. Sezer must either sign the legislation or announce a referendum for the public to consider the bill. Currently, the president is elected by the parliament.

The date of the referendum has yet to be determined. The Prime Minister Erdogan has called for the referendum to be coupled with national elections scheduled for July 22. Sezer does not agree with this plan and will likely push for the referendum to be held later in the year.

Pakistani Chief Justice Confident Charges Will Be Dismissed

The NYTimes reports that the Chief Justice Chaudhry’s legal team is confident that the charges of nepotism and misconduct will be dismissed. Chaudhry recently won an argument to have the case against him reviewed by the whole Pakistani Supreme Court instead of a smaller panel as Musharraf previously sought. The Chaudhry was ousted from his position by Musharraf on March 9 after Chaudhry allegedly refused to resign when pressured in a meeting with Musharraf and the heads of the state security services.

Chaudhry’s dismissal initiated a series of protests by Pakistan’s lawyers that has slowly grown into a larger opposition movement against Musharraf’s continued increasingly autocratic rule. Some speculate that Chaudhry was removed by Musharraf after a number of court rulings by Chaudhry against the actions of the Musharraf government, leading Musharraf to view the justice as a potential problem as he see seeks reelection this fall. Court challenges are likely to occur as Musharraf is seeking to be reelected while still the head of the army, which is unconstitutional in Pakistan.

A expected date for the courts ruling was not given.

Malawian Court Rules MPs Can Be Expelled

The Supreme Court of Malawi ruled that the speaker of the parliament is able to expel MPs who switch parties once in parliament. This is a blow to the president of Malawi whose supporters in parliament have sought to leave the governing party to join a new party established by the president in an attempt to form a minority government.

This ruling may leave the Malawian parliament crippled as it seeks to begin working on a budget next month. If the speaker expels the members, they must seek a new mandate by being reelected under their new party affiliation. It will probably take at least six months to get the elections scheduled, leaving the opposition parties with control of parliament in the interim. With those members out, the opposition will have the two-thirds necessary to pass difficult legislation including constitutional changes.

Nigerian Elections: Democracy at a Crossroads

Nigerian citizens turned out to vote last week for their regional governors in a much heralded prequel to Saturday’s Presidential election. Unfortunately, those Nigerian voters who expected a free and peaceful election process were disappointed. Reports of widespread fraud have been punctuated by news of violent protests with over twenty Nigerians reported killed in the days following the poll.

The Independent Election Commission (INEC) has yet to announce formal results for all 34 states, but it seems clear that if the preliminary results are allowed to stand, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will score a major victory over the combined opposition parties. Naturally, the questionable administration of last week’s election raises several concerns about Saturday’s Presidential vote, which will be (if all goes well) the first peaceful handover of power in Nigeria since 1960.

In contrast to the democratic setbacks of last week’s vote, observers have witnessed several small victories for the rule of law and democratic governance in Nigeria in the lead up to the elections. Last year, President Obasanjo’s supporters made a concerted effort to have the constitution amended to allow him to serve a third term in office. Their attempts were blocked by the legislature in a move thought by many to indicate the advent of a true system of horizontal accountability among Nigerian state institutions.

President Obasanjo then trained his sights on Atiku Abubakar, the major opposition party candidate in Saturday’s presidential poll, by expelling him from the PDP and bringing him to trial on charges of corruption that, if true, would disqualify him as a potential president candidate. While the INEC initially agreed and banned Abubakar from contending, on Monday the Supreme Court reversed this ruling to allow Abubakar to run in Saturday’s election.

While these small victories for democracy seem diminished in light of the violence and fraud that punctuated last week’s elections, they remain important indicators of the relative levels of accountability between different branches of the federal government, an element of democratic governance lacking in many new democracies. These and other recent developments point to increasing parity and oversight among the several branches of the Nigerian federal government.

What does all this mean for Nigerian democracy? In short, it indicates a complex political system that’s in the midst of a major convulsion in terms of its power structures and institutional arrangements. It cannot be forgotten that whoever comes out of Saturday’s presidential election on top will control the vast resources of the Niger delta oilfields. In many ways it is not surprising that the legislative and judicial branches both moved to exert their authority prior to the election, ostensibly in hopes of institutionalizing a set of more equitable relationships that would secure their institutions as relevant centers of power under the new government.

Regardless of the true motives of the judicial and legislative elites, the result of their actions was a set of victories for democracy. Whether or not these small victories will be build upon or summarily reversed will likely depend on the results of Saturday’s election. Stay tuned!