Color Me Impressed with Obama

As I was writing a third post on the topic of Iran – discussing how we shouldn’t blow Mousavi’s resistance or the demonstrations out of proportion – I saw this interview Barack Obama gave to CNBC.  Read it.

Needless to say, I think he does a great job of explaining the issues, explaining his policy and his actions thus far.  Furthermore, he brings up an important issue: Mousavi is a regime man.  Even had he won, we would still be dealing with a regime whose interests would have it continuing to support Hamas/Hezbollah while also pursuing nuclear capabilities.

He assumes that Mousavi, who campaigned on lessening tensions with the West with regards to nuclear capabilities and funding for terrorism, wouldn’t follow through.  Regardless of whether Mousavi could have delivered, the basic fact is that not much would have changed right away as the regime fought internally. Obama makes an important argument here that we should heed.

Lastly, regarding the crowds: let’s not get our hopes up.  We should remember that the most common slogan chanted at the onset of the protests was “raye man kojast?” (Where is my vote?).  While the focus and purpose of those protests might have shifted after the way the regime responded to the demonstrations, the truth is that the crowd is brought together against Ahmadinejad and his policies, and not so much for democracy.  While those participating in the marches demonstrate great bravery and determination, they are united in their desire for more liberty and voice, not necessarily the toppling of the Islamic Regime.  The “manifesto” being sent around supports this claim; the articles require the removal of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei but call for the appointment of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri to the post of interim Supreme Leader until constitutional reform occurs.

This in no way is meant to reduce the importance of what these Iranians are doing.  I just want to make sure that we’re not making assumptions about what the Iranian people want.  I don’t know, and from what I’ve read on blogs and tweets, they all want different things. Some want “freedom;” some want “democracy;” others just want Ahmadinejad gone.

In another parallel of the 1979 Revolution, we see that Iranians from different walks of life find themselves working together against a common enemy. Then, it was the Shah. Today, in what is not a revolution (yet), the common enemies are Ahmadinejad and (perhaps) Khamenei.  But, as the 1979 Revolution showed, the leadership that emerges after the removal of the government overthrow is almost as important as the leadership people rally against.

I should say, though, that after few more days of basiji attacks and killings, perhaps it will become a revolution that seeks more than the nullification of the elections and the replacement of Khamenei.  The next week will be extemely important in determining where the Iranians take their movement.

Khatami Withdraws from Presidential Election

Muhammad Khatami, the President of Iran from 1997 – 2005, officially withdrew his candidacy for the Presidency today.

Known as a “reformer,” Khatami is best known for his liberalization of the media and other aspects of Iranian life throughout his Presidency.  Unfortunately, he is also very well known for disappointing millions of his supporters when he allowed the government to reverse the liberalised policies he promoted.  In fact, many say that Ahmadinejad came to power as a result of Khatami’s failure to affect change – a failure that caused most of his supporters to stay home on election day.

His withdrawal must be hard for the reformist party in Iran.  While definitely “damaged goods” from his time as President, Khatami none-the-less carried wide-spread name recognition and solid credentials as a moderate.   His decision to run for office might also have breathed new life into a demoralized but anxious reformist movement.

In withdrawing, Khatami is expected to support Mir Hussein Mousavi – a fellow reformer and the last Prime Minister of Iran.  According to the Al Arabiya article, Mousavi manages to attract many conservative votes.  The necessity of these votes cannot go unsaid because it is widely considered that the reformist party alone will prove unable to beat Ahmadinejad at the ballot box.

Even should Mousavi manage to attract enough votes to present a threat with his cross-over appeal, he will still need to deal with either Ahmadinejad or Muhammad Bagher Qalibaf (the former Mayor of Tehran). 

It should be an interesting race – I’ll try to keep you updated.  At the end of the day I agree with the Al Arabiya article:

Analysts have said the fate of the race could depend on whether Ahmadinejad retains the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei…

Whoever earns or receives the blessing of Khamenei will most likely succeed Ahmadinejad to the Presidency (unless it is Ahmadinejad himself… in which case I doubt any change will occur).