Kyrgyz Power Play

The President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced today that following the referendum approving a new constitution, he would dissolve parliament and call for new elections under the new electoral code.

Jack posted some thoughts on Sunday regarding the constitutional referendum in Kyrgyzstan. Bonnie Boyd over at the Foreign Policy Association’s Central Asia blog also provides some good commentary (Note: Anyone interested in Central Asia should regularly read Bonnie’s blog. She provides great coverage and analysis of all things Central Asia – economics, culture, foreign policy, politics, environment, etc. She’s much more than the one-trick pony than I am.)

I am a bit more skeptical about this power play by Bakiev than Jack. I think this is a pretty blatant move by Bakiev to reconsolidate power within the presidency. Bonnie notes that perhaps attempts to increase transparency may be more beneficial for increasing both political stability and economic growth. I think that is the wrong approach because the lack of transparency is rooted in the political structures of Kyrgyzstan. Unfortunately, the changes in the new constitution do little to address this fact. Instead, the new constitution will probably result in the consolidation of power by Bakiev and a more authoritarian-style of government. An argument could be made that a more authoritarian government that is more stable will provide better growth, but I will not be the one making it and I doubt it will do much for transparency either (not that Bonnie is arguing this either).

I think that three important points have been underplayed in the coverage of this story: the sitting parliament was corrupt / illegitimate, the weakness of parties is one of the major impediments to further democratization in Kyrgyzstan, and the institutions and rules established by the new constitution could be used by Bakiev to establish his own single-party dominant pseudo-democracy.

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Kyrgyzstan votes in centralizing referendum

Kyrgyz voters today are considering a referendum to strengthen the executive and centralize legislative elections. President Bakiev aims to break gridlock by gaining control over the ousted Askar Akayev’s residuals in parliament.
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Nepali monarchy kaput?

Reuters India reports the Congress Party has agreed to Maoist demands for a republic. The Congress Party is Nepal’s largest faction going into a long-postponed constituent assembly.

A meeting later today will address their second key demand: full proportional representation for constituent assembly elections.

Fruits & Votes blogged the Maoists’ showdown with the interim government earlier this week. For more TDP coverage of Nepal, click the link in the tags below.

Controversy over voting system to derail Nepali constituent assembly?

The Wall Street Journal reports that hardliners have threatened to derail elections to the Nepali constituent assembly unless, among other things, their demand for ‘full’ proportional representation is met.

The ceasefire has held, the peace process is on track and the country is preparing for the polls in November that will elect an assembly to draft a new constitution. For the first time in Nepal’s history, the elections will be on a mixed-proportional system, so traditionally marginalized ethnic groups and castes will have some representation. That all this has been achieved with little bloodshed is remarkable…

…The Maoist leader, Chairman Prachanda, faces mounting pressure from radicals who blame him for “abandoning the revolution.” As if to appease the hardliners he presented a list of 22 demands on Aug. 24 that he said had to be fulfilled before elections. These include parliament declaring Nepal a republic before polls and conducting elections under full proportional representation.

There’s fear (not only among Maoist rebels) that various factions won’t receive maximum seat shares as the country sits down to write a constitution. Or maybe there’s uncertainty about the sizes of voting blocs, and the Maoists want a predictable electoral system.

“Full proportional representation” presumably means some form of list system.

Fruits and Votes reported in January that a non-compensatory SMD tier might have been a demand of the “rural-based Maoists,” who might have looked forward to a seat bonus in malapportioned districts. If that were true, either the tables have turned, or information flows are murky.

What’s going on with those districts, eh?

Democracy Daily Brief – 7.3.07

Snap Elections in Kazakhstan

The Jamestown Foundations’ Eurasia Daily Monitor covers the snap elections recently called in Kazakhstan. In May 2007 President Nazarbayev pressed through constitutional changes that increased the number of members in each chamber of the Kazakh legislature, shortened the presidential term from seven-years to five years, removed term limits on the first president of Kazakhstan, which just so happens to President Nazarbayev.

According to the new constitutional changes, the lower chamber (Majilis) will be elected according by a PR voting system. While this new system may facilitate the creation of new political parties, the Kazakh legislature is still beholden to the whims of the president as he can disband it at any time and many of the Majilis’ powers have been transfered to the Senate and the Senate will assume all of the Majilis’ responsibilities when it is dissolved by the president. Kazakhstan has requested that the OSCE send an observation mission for the elections.

In an odd move, the Majilis petitioned the president to dissolve itself so that it may stand for election according to the new system. The next election is scheduled for August 18 and 20, catching opposition groups and parties by surprise and will be unable any resemblance of a challenge to Nazarbayev’s  Nur Otan Party which enjoys access to state resources. The developments in Kazakhstan are a good illustration of seemingly democratic reforms which actually bolster  incumbent executives and do little to resolve deeper systemic issues.

Pakistani Chief Justice Wins Important Ruling

The  Pakistani Chief Justice Chaudhry received an important win in is ongoing legal struggle against President Musharraf. Musharraf dismissed the chief justice in May under charges of misconduct; the chief justice has vigorously fought the charges. In a ruling yesterday, the court dismissed a large portion of the Musharraf government’s evidence and ordered a sweep of all court buildings and all justices’ homes for listening devices and other spy equipment. Reportedly, the government’s evidence file contained information gather by the Pakistani intelligence service.

In two related items, there are new reports that President General Musharraf may officially decide to step down as head of the army in October before he stands for reelection. Musharraf has served as both president and head of the army since the coup in 1999, it is constitutional to hold both positions in Pakistan. Also, the US may reportedly back the return to power of former Prime Minister Bhutto. Bhutto, the first female prime minister of a Muslim country, may be a way for a negotiated transition for Musharraf who may seek to stay on as president with Bhutto returning to seek the prime minister position.

“Foreigners Should Remove Mugabe”

A Catholic Archbishop in Zimbabwe stated publicly that Britain or other foreign powers should intervene in the increasingly dismal situation in Zimbabwe to remove Robert Mugabe. The declaration is a ratcheting up of rhetoric from the Catholic church in Zimbabwe which released a letter in May criticizing the regime. After the previous letter, Mugabe warned the Catholic church that it would be in a precarious situation if it become too political. We’ll see what type of response Mugabe follows up with.