The Democratic Piece

Having pulled together a budget in Italy’s Senate, Romano Prodi again hints at changes to the country’s electoral law. Specifics are hard to find, but what’s out there indicates a move toward majoritarianism. Javno.com highlights increasing ‘governability’ and “reducing the number of parliamentarians.” AFP notes “electoral reforms aiming to alleviate the endemic fragmentation of Italian politics.” Similar signals from Australia’s The Age and La Repubblica.

The Democratic Party’s Veltroni wants to keep PR but eliminate the plurality bonus implemented by Berlusconi’s government last year. Under the current law, the pre-election coalition with most votes is automatically topped up to 55% of seats in the Chamber.

Reflecting on the possibility of another referendum, one senator claims most voters just want a “healthy democracy of alternation” with two parties and elections regularly held every five years. If only life were so simple.

Italy changes its electoral law the way one changes socks. These institutions are as much the object of politics as its framework. A fun case to follow, even if the electoral engineers aren’t likely to be vindicated.

Former Iraqi PM Ayad Allawi has an op-ed in yesterday’s New York Times calling for smaller electoral districts. Echoing others, Allawi argues the rushed use of closed-list proportional representation exacerbated Iraqi sectarianism.
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The President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced today that following the referendum approving a new constitution, he would dissolve parliament and call for new elections under the new electoral code.

Jack posted some thoughts on Sunday regarding the constitutional referendum in Kyrgyzstan. Bonnie Boyd over at the Foreign Policy Association’s Central Asia blog also provides some good commentary (Note: Anyone interested in Central Asia should regularly read Bonnie’s blog. She provides great coverage and analysis of all things Central Asia - economics, culture, foreign policy, politics, environment, etc. She’s much more than the one-trick pony than I am.)

I am a bit more skeptical about this power play by Bakiev than Jack. I think this is a pretty blatant move by Bakiev to reconsolidate power within the presidency. Bonnie notes that perhaps attempts to increase transparency may be more beneficial for increasing both political stability and economic growth. I think that is the wrong approach because the lack of transparency is rooted in the political structures of Kyrgyzstan. Unfortunately, the changes in the new constitution do little to address this fact. Instead, the new constitution will probably result in the consolidation of power by Bakiev and a more authoritarian-style of government. An argument could be made that a more authoritarian government that is more stable will provide better growth, but I will not be the one making it and I doubt it will do much for transparency either (not that Bonnie is arguing this either).

I think that three important points have been underplayed in the coverage of this story: the sitting parliament was corrupt / illegitimate, the weakness of parties is one of the major impediments to further democratization in Kyrgyzstan, and the institutions and rules established by the new constitution could be used by Bakiev to establish his own single-party dominant pseudo-democracy.

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Writing for Brookings, Georgetown’s Steven Heydemann notes that Arab authortiarian regimes are upgrading their survivability toolkit with implications for democracy promotion approaches.
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Kyrgyz voters today are considering a referendum to strengthen the executive and centralize legislative elections. President Bakiev aims to break gridlock by gaining control over the ousted Askar Akayev’s residuals in parliament.
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If so, the news is not necessarily good for proponents of winner-take-all systems. The direction of Bolivian electoral reform was from more to less proportionality - in particular, the addition of single-member districts.

A new study by Miguel Centellas finds evidence that Bolivia’s move from regional list PR to a mixed member system has destabilized the country’s party system. Destabilization has manifested most significantly in Andean voters’ migration to anti-system parties.

Why? One explanation is that the use of plurality SMD districts tended to tie parties closer to specific constituent, rather than national, interests. In a multiparty system, most SMD legislators were elected by small pluralities, not majorities. This seems to have encouraged parties to target their electoral message to a narrow base in order to better win SMD seats. The evidence also suggests that Bolivian politics (prior to 2002) had a centripetal tendency, pulling parties closer to the political center. In contrast, politics since 2002 has tended towards powerful centrifugal tendencies and a high degree of polarization (particularly regional polarization). Such a shift has negative consequences for political stability, as well as for future democratic prospects.

If this is the case, could implementing a majority requirement (and some form of runoff) in the nominal tier dampen the centrifugal tendency of the new system? Or would single-member districts trump?

As Russia gears up for Duma elections on December 2, the opposition squeeze continues. What’s interesting: Putin’s use of institutional change to entrench a power grab. Term-limited, he cannot legally seek the presidency again. Rather than breaking the law, it seems, Putin plans to keep power by changing it.
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Reuters India reports the Congress Party has agreed to Maoist demands for a republic. The Congress Party is Nepal’s largest faction going into a long-postponed constituent assembly.

A meeting later today will address their second key demand: full proportional representation for constituent assembly elections.

Fruits & Votes blogged the Maoists’ showdown with the interim government earlier this week. For more TDP coverage of Nepal, click the link in the tags below.

The referendum about to happen in Ontario is important - and not just because it novelly challenges the hegemony of plurality electoral rules in Anglo-America. It could be a referendum on fairness.
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The Wall Street Journal reports that hardliners have threatened to derail elections to the Nepali constituent assembly unless, among other things, their demand for ‘full’ proportional representation is met.

The ceasefire has held, the peace process is on track and the country is preparing for the polls in November that will elect an assembly to draft a new constitution. For the first time in Nepal’s history, the elections will be on a mixed-proportional system, so traditionally marginalized ethnic groups and castes will have some representation. That all this has been achieved with little bloodshed is remarkable…

…The Maoist leader, Chairman Prachanda, faces mounting pressure from radicals who blame him for “abandoning the revolution.” As if to appease the hardliners he presented a list of 22 demands on Aug. 24 that he said had to be fulfilled before elections. These include parliament declaring Nepal a republic before polls and conducting elections under full proportional representation.

There’s fear (not only among Maoist rebels) that various factions won’t receive maximum seat shares as the country sits down to write a constitution. Or maybe there’s uncertainty about the sizes of voting blocs, and the Maoists want a predictable electoral system.

“Full proportional representation” presumably means some form of list system.

Fruits and Votes reported in January that a non-compensatory SMD tier might have been a demand of the “rural-based Maoists,” who might have looked forward to a seat bonus in malapportioned districts. If that were true, either the tables have turned, or information flows are murky.

What’s going on with those districts, eh?