One way to model dictatorship

Says the BBC:

Iraqi politics is still a zero-sum game, and one in which the Sunni Arabs feel themselves doomed to be the losers.

Last week I analogized the situation to repeated games of Chicken.

BDM Predicts Whether Iran Will Build the Bomb

A recent NYT magazine article profiles Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s work, including a recent game tree predicting whether Iran will have the bomb. Spoiler alert…..his answer is no.

Could his work be relevant in our understanding of democratic regime change or are there too many preferences to account for?