Winning the Hearts and Minds of the IRGC

Laura Secor has an interesting analysis over at the New Yorker.  She contends that the protesters are using tactics to make it hard for the IRGC and the basiji’s, charged with protecting the Islamic Republic, to attack them.  In her words:

The purpose of the Revolutionary Guard and Basij is the defense of the Islamic Revolution and the Supreme Leader. Rarely have the true believers in the militias been forced to consider the possibility that these two functions might come into conflict. Such a moment may have arrived. It is one thing to unleash brutal force on crowds that insult the Leader or Islam. That was how the members of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij could defend their assault on demonstrators at Tehran University in 1999. But now, in the name of Ahmadinejad’s controversial presidency, they are being asked to violently disperse fellow Iranians who are chanting religious slogans, carrying Korans, and calling for the lawful counting of their votes. Whether or not the rumors of splits at the top of the Revolutionary Guards’ hierarchy are true, the rank and file is not necessarily monolithic.

As the above shows, the rank and file IRGC now find themselves between an Ayatollah and a hard place.  If they crackdown on the protesters on behalf of Ahmadinejad, could they possibly be selling out the Islamic Republic?  I agree with her that it’s crucial for the demonstrators/opposition to neutralize the IRGC, however, her analysis fails to mention that the IRGC is particularly wedded to the current regime economically.

Under Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, the IRGC received more no-bid grants and control over the economy than ever before.  That doesn’t even include the millions the IRGC receives from the government under the nuclear enrichment program.  Even should there be an ideological conflict regarding the interests of the Islamic Republic, the financial interests of the IRGC commanders (and often mid-level officers) is very clear.

Considering this fact, the real question is: how well trained is the IRGC? Will they follow orders (since the upper brass is financially invested in the current regime) or will each member think for himself?