Is This the Beginning of the End of the Pakistani State?

I don’t know, to be honest, and a lot depends on how Pakistan’s government responds to Taliban aggression, but this article in the NYT does not make me very hopeful.  It appears that Pakistan is inviting the disloyal opposition into government, an equation that resulted in the collapse of the German and Italian states before WWII.  After a brief background on the situation, I will explain the connection.

According to the authors, the Taliban, having successfully “won” the Swat Valley from the government, are becoming more confident and more assertive.  It also appears that the Taliban has figured out that instigating class warfare , and promising to address the grievances of the poor, is a successful method to mobilize an army in Pakistan, a largely feudal society.  The story of Buner in the NYT article, a region where the citizens historically fought off the Taliban, is particularly disheartening.  The people who stood up against the Taliban in 2007 now feel betrayed by a military unwilling or unable to contain the threat, an incompetent and corrupt government, and a police force too afraid to maintain law and order.  As a result, they’re not fighting anymore – and the Taliban are taking over.

Since signing the peace deal with the government, the Taliban and various other jihadist organizations, have worked together to kill, intimidate and exile any potential opponents in Swat and several other regions.  Sadly, the peace deal that handed over control of the Swat Valley also pardoned the Taliban and their supporters for their crimes, such as killings, theft of property, intimidation and destruction of girl’s schools.  With such a deal, it’s no wonder they’re at it again, killing opponents, intimidating police and implementing “Islamic” courts to uphold Sharia law.

Be that as it may, why tie this to the collapse of the state?  Perhaps this is just what the Taliban said – they wanted control over the Swat Valley…

I know that comparisons to WWII are overused, and for my part I will try to avoid broad generalizations; however I feel that history has a lesson for us in relation to Pakistan.  In both Italy (Mussolini) and Germany (Hitler), the governments in power invited the disloyal opposition into government.  For clarity’s sake, the disloyal opposition refers to opposition groups or parties that seek to replace government institutions and structures with their own.  In Germany, Hitler replaced a democracy with a totalitarian police state.  Mussolini likewise removed a democratic government and replaced it with an authoritarian fascist government.  In both cases, the two men intended to remove the current government and replace it with their own.  Even so, the governments underestimated their support or overestimated their ability to control the rogue organizations.  Well, you know how that turned out.

Pakistan‘s experience thus far with the Taliban is very similar.  In each province they occupy, they establish their own courts and governing councils.  To the extent possible, the Taliban also attempts to sweep away the official Pakistani government.  Is there any question that they wish to replace the current Pakistani government – not just officials, but governance system – with their own?

Another similarity between the cases of Germany/Italy and Pakistan today is that the Taliban are creating violence in the provinces and then offering to solve the problem for the government as a leverage to extract concession in negotiations.  The displayed unwillingness or inability of the government to clamp down on the activity only improves their negotiating position vis-à-vis the government.  Said another way, the Taliban and their followers create disorder and then present themselves as the only solution for ending that disorder – oh, that is if the government hands over control of the provinces in question.  Mussolini and Hitler did exactly the same thing in Italy and Germany – they used their organizations to create disorder, kill opponents and instigated riots.  Then, as representatives of the group, they went to the government promising to end the violence and disorder for inclusion in governance.  The government obliged them by offering a seat at the governing table in return for “ending” the violence.

The strategy didn’t work then and it doesn’t appear to be working now.  As Hitler/Mussolini did then, the Taliban are now taking their victory and using it as a recruiting tool to spread their influence and establish themselves as a legitimate opposition organization with the end goal of taking control of the state.  The longer the Taliban are allowed to mobilize supporters, fan out across the country, kill or intimidate opponents and to establish their own parallel governance institutions, the harder it will be for the Pakistani government to put an end to it if (when?) they recognize the threat.

In ending I should note that there remains some hope.  While the Taliban have been very successful in mobilizing people in rural areas where the feudal structure creates more apparent and easily preyed upon grievances, several articles mention that the Taliban are a far cry away from being able to topple a large urban centers, such as Peshawar. But I feel that is just a matter of time if action isn’t taken.  Pakistan’s large cities are home to miles upon miles of slums and shanty-towns.  In my view, these areas, which host  large numbers of people, seem prime for class warfare manipulation and mobilization.  A lot depends on individual agency – for instance, are people willing to accept the Taliban or will they stand against them.  Unfortunately, the events in Pakistan over the last month do not inspire confidence.

Well, I guess I didn’t end on hope.  Sorry, I tried.

Iraq and Afghanistan

I don’t know how many of our readers follow the events in Afghanistan and Iraq, but here is a great article about the developments (and potential problems forces still face) in both these countries. The stories linked within the article are also great briefings on the individual situations of Afghanistan and Iraq. I highly recommend reading all three articles

As it’s finals season, I don’t have the time to give a thorough analysis of the piece. I disagree with a few of their conclusions and recommendations, but the facts they present alone are worth spending the time working through the articles.

Enjoy.