In his address the President hailed Mustafa Kemal’s legacy which manifests in “…Turkey’s strong and secular democracy.” What repercussions might this appraisal for Turkey’s democratic experiment yield? Or as I mentioned in the title, how do we move “Beyond Ankara?” Turkey might be one of the more liberalized regimes in the Middle East, and a good choice in comparison to other Muslim States. But it is far from becoming a complete democracy.

In a book titled The Politics of the Middle East, Monte Palmer asserts, “Turkey has produced a very complex society that is struggling to balance secularism with its Islamic faith, democracy with the desire for security and statism with economic liberalization.” (2007, p.322). Palmer’s characterization of the “Turkish dilemma” is not distinctive. Arab autocratic regimes, for example, are faced with a similar conundrum, albeit with varying intensity.

Perhaps the most prevalent feature of Turkish political culture is the endurance of the so-called “deep state,” which manifests in the subservience of civil government to the military, and in the dispensation of upper echelons in other security agencies and the judiciary from regulations mandated by elected officials. Both Turkey and Arab States suffer from a lack of separation between “public” and “private”; a phenomenon coupled with the obfuscated relationship between “military” and “civil.” And like Turkey, most Arab populist and monarchist regimes hold elections, allow some room for free press, and claim to heed criticism from the opposition. One difference between both Turkey and Arab States vests in how regimes respond to actions deemed unfavorable. In the case of elections for example, it is not uncommon for Arab regimes to gerrymander, while in Turkey, the military has tended to initiate coups or pressure the judiciary to ostracize undesired political parties from partaking in elections.

Another distinct feature of Turkish politics is its adaptation of secularism, sometimes referred to as “Kemalist” secularism. Without dwelling on the intricacies of secularism, in the broadest sense, it is perceived as the separation of Church and State. Kemalist secularism elected to integrate Islam as a subordinate to state structures. In fact the secular nature of Turkey’s limited democracy, which the President praised in his speech, augments a major construct of Turkish political culture: the preservation of the deep state as opposed to consolidating democracy. And it is this strain of political culture that the United States must stand up to.

In his inaugural address President Obama warned despots across the world, “…know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.” This message gave hope to the many disquieted people across the Muslim world. In a way it relieved them of fears that the US would no longer support organic efforts to create more free and just societies. I know that it is in the Muslim World’s interest to push for more reliable democratization efforts. If the US abandons moderate and opposition groups in the wider Islamic world, it may be impossible to  revive these relationships again. I fervently hope that the President realizes that pursuing the democratic agenda in the Islamic world, serves the long-term interests of the United States as well.

The ruling Nur Otan party in Kazakhstan won 88 percent of the vote in August 18, 2007 parliamentary elections for the lower house (Majilis), and the two main opposition parties failed to reach the 7 percent threshold and will not receive any seats in the new parliament. The OSCE observation group released preliminary findings on the state of the elections. Overall the OSCE saw the election as an improvement over previous elections, citing a calm voting process. However, the OSCE noted serious faults with the transparency in the counting procedures and unequal access to state media outlets. Additionally, the OSCE noted that the elections which were called two years ahead of schedule occurred before all of the recent electoral reforms could be fully implemented. Under the new electoral code, 98 of the 107 seats in the Majilis are elected through a closed list, nationwide PR system. The other nine seats are appointed by the upper house (Assembly of People) which is an appointed body. Parties decide after the election on which candidates on their list receive seats in the Majilis. This actually does not change anything as the previous Majilis was also completely controlled by members loyal to President Nazarbayev.

Thailand Referendum Approves Constitution

Reports out of Thailand indicate that voters approved a new constitution through a referendum held on August 19, 2007. According to the Thai election commission, turn out reached 60 percent and between 68 – 70 percent approved the constitution which was designed by the military currently governing Thailand. NYTimes has a good rundown of the pre-vote environment and the basic shape of the new constitution. Not surprisingly, the new constitution provides immunity for those who executed the September 2006 coup. The military government has announced that it will hold elections in December.

Turkey Holds First Round of Presidential Vote

The Turkish parliament voted on August 20, 2007 in the first round of the presidential selection process. Abdullah Gul, the foreign minister and majority party’s presidential candidate, failed to receive enough votes in the first round to clinch the presidency. Gul received 341 votes, 26 shy of the total needed to win. A second round of voting has been scheduled for Friday, August 24, 2007 with a third session to follow on August 28, 2007. Gul is the candidate of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) which is historically rooted in an political Islam. However, the AKP has repeatedly expressed that it is socially conservative, pro-Western, and pro-Turkish accession into the EU. The two major opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) announced that they would not support a Gul presidency. The Turkish military has refrained from commenting yet on the first round of voting, but it threatened to get involved during the last political standoff over Gul’s candidacy back in April 2007. Turkey’s military, which views itself as the guardian of secularism, has intervened multiple times in Turkish politics. As recently as 1997 when the military ousted a government in which Gul served as a minister.

Maldives Referendum Approves US-style Presidency

The current President of Maldives scored a major victory this week when a proposal he backed passed in a referendum. The referendum decided the new government structure of the Maldives which has been ruled for almost 30 years by the current President. The approved proposal would establish a strong presidential system similar to the form used in the United States. The opposition parties were favoring a British-style parliamentary system. The president is expected to call for a multi-party presidential election next year; however, major doubts remain whether the electoral process will meet international standards. The blog IntelliBriefs provides a rundown of the election environment.

The prime minister Erdogan of the AKP party has said that he would seek to propose a consensus candidate time; however, foreign minister Gul has indicated he may again seek the nomination. If the AKP is unable to get the parliament to agree to a presidential candidate by mid-October, then the president may be popularly elected. In Turkey, the parliament selects the president, but a referendum is schedule for the October 21st, 2007 that would amend the constitution for the direct election of the president. If the parliament selects a president before the referendum, the newly selected president will serve a full seven-year term. If, however, the parliament fails to agree on a candidate, then the new president would be popularly elected.

The Washington Institute provides a good summary of the event here.

Hamas has continued to consolidate power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas now controls all of the Gaza Strip and has taken over the security service buildings and the presidential buildings. On Friday Hamas gunmen rounded up remaining Fatah leaders in Gaza. Initial reports indicated that the prisoners may be executed, but Hamas has since announced a “general amnesty” for Fatah fighters in Gaza. They have since been released.

In the West Bank President Abbas demonstrated Fatah’s strength implementing a state of emergency with patrols of Fatah soldiers. Fatah actions against Hamas’ legislative offices and personnel continued, and Fatah’s forces stormed the parliament and government buildings previously under Hamas’ control and fired all Hamas affiliated staff. Reportedly, during the storming of the parliament building the deputy prime minister was almost arrested, but senior Fatah officers at the site stopped the detention.

Both Fatah and Hamas continued to argue over the legitimate form of government. On Thursday President Abbas decreed that parliament be dissolved, but Hamas rejected this order as hasty and asserted that their governing legitimacy is greater than Abbas’ due to the 2005 elections. Abbas as appointed Salam Fayyad as interim Prime Minister, but Hamas has rejected this appointment. Mr. Fayyad has been described as a technocrat and a moderate and previously served as finance minister in the previous “unity” government.

President Abbas has received the most international support so far, including pledges of support from the quartet (US, EU, UN, & Russia), the Arab League, and Israel. The US, Israel, and the EU have pledged to support and bolster President Abbas. Supposedly, Israel is planning to release to Abbas a large portion of the taxes that it collects for Palestine and has refused to distribute since Hamas gained a majority a year and a half ago.

Turkish President Vetos Bill on Popular Election, Referendum Fight Lies Ahead

As expected, President Sezer of refused to sign a bill that passed by the parliament that would require the Turkish president to be directly elected by the public, but Sezer has vetoed a similar bill once. Under Turkish law the president is not permited to veto the same law twice. Sezer must either sign the legislation or announce a referendum for the public to consider the bill. Currently, the president is elected by the parliament.

The date of the referendum has yet to be determined. The Prime Minister Erdogan has called for the referendum to be coupled with national elections scheduled for July 22. Sezer does not agree with this plan and will likely push for the referendum to be held later in the year.

Pakistani Chief Justice Confident Charges Will Be Dismissed

The NYTimes reports that the Chief Justice Chaudhry’s legal team is confident that the charges of nepotism and misconduct will be dismissed. Chaudhry recently won an argument to have the case against him reviewed by the whole Pakistani Supreme Court instead of a smaller panel as Musharraf previously sought. The Chaudhry was ousted from his position by Musharraf on March 9 after Chaudhry allegedly refused to resign when pressured in a meeting with Musharraf and the heads of the state security services.

Chaudhry’s dismissal initiated a series of protests by Pakistan’s lawyers that has slowly grown into a larger opposition movement against Musharraf’s continued increasingly autocratic rule. Some speculate that Chaudhry was removed by Musharraf after a number of court rulings by Chaudhry against the actions of the Musharraf government, leading Musharraf to view the justice as a potential problem as he see seeks reelection this fall. Court challenges are likely to occur as Musharraf is seeking to be reelected while still the head of the army, which is unconstitutional in Pakistan.

A expected date for the courts ruling was not given.

Malawian Court Rules MPs Can Be Expelled

The Supreme Court of Malawi ruled that the speaker of the parliament is able to expel MPs who switch parties once in parliament. This is a blow to the president of Malawi whose supporters in parliament have sought to leave the governing party to join a new party established by the president in an attempt to form a minority government.

This ruling may leave the Malawian parliament crippled as it seeks to begin working on a budget next month. If the speaker expels the members, they must seek a new mandate by being reelected under their new party affiliation. It will probably take at least six months to get the elections scheduled, leaving the opposition parties with control of parliament in the interim. With those members out, the opposition will have the two-thirds necessary to pass difficult legislation including constitutional changes.

The BBC notes that Mugabe’s government has proposed a new general communications bill that will require internet providers in Zimbabwe to install technology that would enable the monitor e-mail and web-traffic. Furthermore, the legislation will empower the government to monitor phone calls and postal mail.

Many human rights activists in Zimbabwe are concerned that this new law will be used against opposition and human rights groups. While it is probably safe to assume that Mugabe regularly taps the phones of his opponents, the government is gaining access to internet monitoring technology developed by China. While the BBC article (and this article) reports that there are likely ways that internet and e-mail communication may circumvent the government’s monitoring, this is another important example of China’s growing influence and support to other autocratic regimes by providing cheap loans or aid, selling internet technology, or investment into industries in other countries which China deems important for assuring its access to crucial resources.

Turkish President Urges Constitutional Reform Referendum

Turkish President Sezer called for a referendum to decide if the Turkish president should be popularly elected. Currently, the president is elected by the parliament. Turkey recently faced a constitutional crisis as the secular opposition parties boycotted parliament to prevent the quorum necessary to elect the presidential candidate of the AK Party.

The president previously vetoed similar reforms passed by the parliament, but he is unable to veto it a second time. It is not certain when this referendum will take place.

Hamas Consolidates Control of Gaza Strip

After days of military struggle between Hamas and Fatah forces, it appears that Hamas has gained control of the Gaza Strip. Life seems to be returning to normal as the violence has waned as Hamas consolidates power. Hamas has taken control of most of the security posts and intends to control the Rafah crossing into Egypt. This will potential provide Hamas with a more reliable transport route to weapons and material.

Palestinian President Abbas announced the dissolution of the coalition government, but Hamas announced that it would dismiss the president’s “hasty actions” and proceed with governing and would seek to continue to cooperate with Fatah.

Glenn Kessler of the Post sees this rise of Hamas as an example of the failure of Bush’s strategy for the Middle East. So far it seems the US will not seek to become engaged in the crisis and well adjust to the new reality of a Hamas controlled Gaza Strip. It seems the Bush Administration will continue its strategy of bolstering Hamas while attempting to strangle off Hamas. How’s that working so far?

On Friday night, shortly after the vote, the Turkish military issued a statement which seemed to indicate that it would act if necessary to preserve what it sees as Turkey’s essential secular character.  (The Turkish military is known for its strong stance in favor of Turkish secularism; it has ousted 4 governments in the last 50 years, most recently in 1997.)  Gül made an equally strong display of confidence, saying that he would not bow out of the contest.     

A constitutional court ruling is expected by Tuesday or Wednesday.  A second round of voting for the post is (at the moment) also set for Wednesday.  If the opposition to the first vote is upheld by the court, Prime Minister Erdoğan will be forced to call an early parliamentary election.

 A particularly interesting set of elections will occur soon in Turkey, beginning with the presidential election on April 26 or May 3 and followed by the parliamentary elections on November 4 of this year.  Indeed, the topic of elections formed the subject of some lively conversations I had with Turkish friends last January in Istanbul at a popular cafe. But the Turkish elections are not salient simply because they are looming; Turkey continues to represent the nexus of many of the dominant issues in contemporary academic and policy debates on the Middle East:  the expression of Islam within a democratic framework, the EU accession path of a Muslim country, and the role of the military in political life, among others.

Interestingly, at the eleventh hour before the presidential race, candidates have yet to be announced, though speculations are brewing this week that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan may choose to run.  This conjecture is being made in light of a comment he made last week that the announcement of the presidential candidates would come as a “shock.”  The deadline for ErdoÄŸan to make his choice for candidate to represent his Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) is this Wednesday the 25th.  Ironically, many members of his party support his candidacy, but they are expressing their desire that he not run, citing his leadership in both continuing to carry out the task of pro-EU reform and in leading the AKP party to victory in November.  According to some sources, ErdoÄŸan is largely responsible for the commencement of Turkey’s accession talks with the EU in 2004-5, and he has contributed positively to economic development in Turkey. 

The choice for the post of president has weighty implications; even if its formal powers are limited to a veto of major legislation, the continued salience of the office can be traced to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk–Turkey’s first president and the founder of modern-day, secular Turkey–and Atatürk’s continued significance for contemporary Turkish identity.  The degree of importance that many place on Turkey’s secular identity was underscored on April 14, as over 300,000 protesters filled Ankara’s streets in a display of support for a pro-secular government in Turkey’s future.  At the same time, many Turks feel strongly about retaining certain aspects of their Islamic identity and freedom of religious expression, a current of thought in Turkey that raises questions for some about how ErdoÄŸan’s leadership of the Islamic AKP would color the office of president. 

Of particular importance in these debates is the often-publicized and widespread issue of headscarves.  Currently, women in Turkey are not allowed to wear headscarves in governmental offices and schools, which means that women who choose to wear the scarf might have less employment and educational opportunities than they otherwise would have.  Thus, on top of the usual issues of identity and religious expression, headscarf laws and their consequences have major issues for women’s intellectual and professional development. 

The constellation of issues related to upcoming Turkish elections, thus, are many and interdependent.  Stay tuned in order to stay abreast of the developments…