Duma Elections

Putin’s great farce of an election has come and gone. Unsurprisingly, United Russia (the most pro-Putin party) received more 64%, the Communist Party received approximately 11%, the Liberal-Democratic Party (read Fascist-Nationalist Party, also pro-Putin) received approximately 8%, and the Fair Russia (also, pro-Putin) received just over 7% clearing the threshold. Because of seat allocation rules, United Russia will receive more than the two-thirds of the seats in the Duma – more than enough to press through any changes to the constitution or otherwise.

I don’t have much to say about this farce, except that the world should call it that. Russia should be dismissed from the G-8, the OSCE, and other international organization in which being a democracy is a stated requirement. To not acknowledge this blatant abuse is to appease a petty dictator and his coterie of sycophants, permitting them to continue to strengthen their authoritarian system of governing over what is one of the strategically most important countries to US interests.

Lastly, anyone who thinks this election may have even had a hint of legitimacy, I submit two items. According to the Russian Central Election Commission website:

•  Chechnya – home of a violent separatist movement for more than a decade reported turnout of more than, by 7pm had a turn out of more than 92% and I’ve seen news reports with a final turnout number of 99% with 99% of voters in Grozny, the Chechan capital, voting for United Russia.
• Ingushetia Republic – another majority Muslim region with a significant separatist movement, also had turnout of more than 92% by 7pm with total final turnout listed at 98%.

The Other Russia blog has a detailed list of vote-fraud techniques employed during the election.

Russia Election Watch

Russia is gearing up for its election season this winter. The Duma, Russia’s legislature, will stand for election in December and Russia is set to elect a new president in March. As I’ve noted on the DP before, democracy in Russia is on life support. Regional governors are no longer elected, the activity of civil society organizations have been curtailed by new laws and registration requirements, long-standing parties have been denied registration, and the independent media has slowly been consumed by the Russian state or Kremlin allies.

While there is little doubt that the upcoming elections will fail to meet international standards and the results will strengthen the Kremlin’s hand, much can be gleaned from the process. The manner in which these elections are carried out will tell outsiders to what extent the Kremlin will go to solidify its hold on power.

Furthermore, the Putin-succession process adds to the drama of the election season. While some observers think that Putin’s recent announcement that he would agree to head the party list for United Russia may indicate Putin’s intention to redirect power to the prime minister’s office, I doubt that is likely to occur. I still believe that Vladimir has a few more twists and turns up his sleeves in the coming months.

I’m going to try and post some interesting stories related to this process during the next few months. While I can’t promise daily commentary, I’ll try to at least link to interesting stories in the press and posts from other blogs.

There are a few interesting stories today that are worth pointing out:

• Carnegie’s Morning Brief links to a NYTimes story detailing the Kremlin’s attempt to further extend government control over the Internet. The take away from this article, besides increased state control, is the extent that the Kremlin is using “pro-Putin” youth group to counter opposition groups, even in blog coverage of protest events.
• In the lead up to the parliamentary elections, the Russian government has reached an “agreement” with food producers and retailers to institute a freeze on prices. Inflation and price increases in basic foodstuffs in recent weeks has made the Kremlin uneasy. After all, when your legitimacy is tenuous when basing your legitimacy on circuses and bread, and the bread is too expensive.
• Pro-Putin demonstrations have recently taken place across the country. The events, allegedly organized by state officials, are urging Putin to stay on as president after his second term ends in March. The take-away: the extent of the cult of personality around Putin is strong. Don’t be surprised to see a “grass-roots” movement seek to change the constitution or pressure Putin’s successor to step down.
• Eleven parties have been approved by the Election Commission to contest in the December elections. Three parties were barred because of problems with the membership signatures turned into the Election Commission for registration. The take-away: eleven parties is a significant amount. Given Russia’s new PR electoral system with a 7% threshold to enter the Duma, this could lead to an utter sweep by United Russia, the pro-Putin party of power. A recent opinion poll stated that approximately 66% of voters plan to vote for United Russia in December.
• Lastly, the Russian Election Commission announced that Russia will invite international observers for the December 2 parliamentary elections. The invitations will be sent out this week and the delegation is expected to reach 400 people. The take-away: While it is good that Russia is finally inviting the monitors, it is too late for any meaningful oversight to be implemented. Obersvation missions typically have a smaller group that observes and analyzes the pre-election evironment and election process months in advance of election day. Additionally, this mission will be signiciantly smaller than previous missions. For the 2003 parliamentary elections the OSCE sent 400 observers alone. The 400 this time will include observers from the OSCE and the Nordic Council, along with the shame election monitoring organizations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Commonwealth of Independent States.