Zimbabwe power-sharing?

Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe and the probable winner he muscled out of a presidential runoff, Morgan Tsvangirai, concluded a power-sharing agreement Tuesday morning. On one hand, we saw this coming. On the other, there are reasons to doubt the “sharing” part.

Last April, it appeared Mugabe was in a bind. He was losing a presidential election, and the South African judiciary was blocking $1.2 million in Chinese guns from entering his repressive arsenal. There were rumors in state news of a “national unity government.” Later on, Botswana’s Seretse Khama led regional rejection of Mugabe’s “win.” The pressure was on from multiple fronts, and the only thing holding Mugabe in place was his ability to maintain the loyalty of the military.

At first glance, this is a Kenya-style solution: invent a prime ministership, inflate cabinet, split the spoils. While the NY Times is light on details and slightly optimistic, Le Monde spells it out:

1. Tsvangirai gets the new title of Prime Minister;
2. Cabinet is now 31 members large;
3. Mugabe gets to name 15 members;
4. Tsvangirai gets to name 13;
5. a “dissident faction” of the opposition, led by Arthur Mutambara, names the remaining 3 members;
6. and Mugabe gets to keep the National Security Council, which covers the army, police and secret service.

The Financial Times disagrees a bit on that last point, nonetheless offering an insightfully sober analysis:

Who controls the security portfolios will be critical to restoration of confidence. It appears that Mr Mugabe will control the army, and Mr Tsvangirai the police and justice ministry. That might work, but all those institutions are currently controlled by Zanu-PF loyalists. They cannot be purged overnight.

It appears that the MDC will get the most important economic jobs in the cabinet, although that could be a poisoned chalice if swift action proves impossible to stabilise the economy and revive the vital farm sector. The task would be daunting for a united government: it could prove overwhelming for one divided by years of intimidation and rivalry.

The important question is whether Mugabe will use the army to repress opposition activity. On that, the Times offers this bit of inconclusive insight:

Talking about the negotiations that led to the agreement, Mr. Mugabe also said there were “lots of things in the agreement that I don’t like, and still don’t like.”

However, he said, “we are all Zimbabweans and is there any other road, any other route to follow? History makes us walk the same route.”

Breaking: Zimbabwe sanctions vetoed

The BBC reports that Russia and China, among others, have voted against Zimbabwe sanctions in the UN’s Security Council. There’s probably no surprise here: the vote gives both countries the chance to exert their power in opposition to the hopes of their western opponents, the US and the UK. It also undermines calls within the UN for (1) restraint to political violence by the Zanu PF, and (2) respect for democratic outcomes. As powers that regularly undermine democratic processes, Russia and China gain much by casting doubt over the primacy of democratic governance in the lofty forum that the Sec Council affords.

Mugabe cracks down as opposition takes legislative majority

The NY Times reports a raid on the Zimbabwean opposition headquarters. Police claim the 215 they arrested are suspected of “political violence,” but this is clearly the next step in Mugabe’s effort to ensure he wins a presidential runoff election.

Security forces took “computers and documents,” allegedly including evidence that opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the original election. They also targeted the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, NDI’s in-country partner.

According to Le Monde, opposition candidates will control parliament. Even if Mugabe’s Zanu-PF wins each of the five remaining seats in the 23-seat partial recount, it cannot retain its majority.

Mugabe’s loss of parliament makes retaining the presidency even more critical. If there is a transition on the horizon, Mugabe will want to bargain from executive office.

Zimbabwean democratic transition?

With Mugabe unable to tap foreign support, hints at a power-sharing deal and the release of election results, a democratic transition could be underway in Zimbabwe.

According to the New York Times, a neighboring democracy won’t let Mugabe bust opposition heads:

South Africa’s High Court on Friday barred transport of the ammunition, rockets and mortar bombs across South Africa from the port of Durban to landlocked Zimbabwe, after an Anglican archbishop argued that the arms were likely to be used to crush the Zimbabwean opposition after last month’s disputed election.

The 77-ton shipment from China was worth $1.245 million. Inflation notwithstanding, Zimbabwe’s dictator has missed out on a lot of guns.

The Times also said Zimbabwe’s state news, “deep in a long editorial,” hinted at a “national unity government.” If I have found the right article, the suggestion is quite near to the top. Here is the first mention:

The [International Crisis Group] report suggests that a negotiated way forward for Zimbabwe need not necessarily exclude President Mugabe, and should that inclusion be part of a genuinely negotiated agreement that aims at reconciliation and renewal, the Euro-Americans “should not hold back”.

On my way over to find the editorial, I noticed on the front page of the site that the ZEC has started releasing election results:

Zanu-PF retains Goromonzi West
ZANU-PF has retained Goromonzi West House of Assembly and Senate seats in the first batch of poll recount results released last night while the Sadc observer team says it is satisfied with the vote recounting process currently underway in 23 constituencies.
FULL STORY

These developments raise several questions.

Is Zimbabwe moving toward a pacted democratic transition or a Kenya-style band-aid solution?¹ Mugabe is an old man, and the rest of the editorial could be read as celebrating his legacy. Will he tap a successor or negotiate his way out?

Is the regime’s repressive capacity dwindling? The coincidence of the “unity government” announcement and failed Chinese arms shipment suggest it might be. If so, what is the opposition’s capacity to get concessions from Mugabe?

In blocking the weapons, is South Africa nudging the country toward democracy, or is this an isolated attempt to maintain social peace?

1. Kenya now has a 40-member cabinet: 20 members from the ruling party, 20 from the opposition.

Crackdown Begins

The Washington Post recently posted a story detailing what appears to be the beginnings of Mugabe’s post-election crackdown. The money quotes from the lede:

President Robert Mugabe’s government raided the offices of the main opposition movement and rounded up foreign journalists Thursday in an ominous indication that he may use intimidation and violence to keep his grip on power.

Police raided a hotel used by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change and ransacked some of the rooms. Riot police also surrounded another hotel housing foreign journalists, and took away several of them, according to a man who answered the phone there.

It looks like it is on. Although it seemed that there may have been some small hope about Mugabe walking away given the latest reports, that hope was always fleeting. It isn’t in Mugabe’s character to be strong armed out of a country. To stay and fight, he must be fairly confident that he has enough of the security apparatus behind him to force the result he wants.

At this point, there is little the U.S. or many countries besides those that surround Zimbabwe can do. If there is hope for a transition, moves must come from either South Africa and part of the Zimbabwean security services. If there is not a split in the regime, there is almost no hope for a peaceful end to this. Good luck to everyone inside Zimbabwe – may this struggle soon be over and your country cleansed of Mugabe.

BREAKING: Mugabe to resign?

Following Danielle’s piece yesterday on the early unofficial returns from the Presidential election, I just saw a post on Foreign Policy about Mugabe’s potential resignation. As FP mentions, the NYTimes article seems to be sourced well; however, any potential deal could fall apart in moments.

As an interesting side note, I work for an international NGO that supports civil society groups in Zimbabwe. My coworker who focuses on Africa informed me that she had heard from sources within Zimbabwe that Robert Mugabe had left Zimbabwe for Malaysia as a safety precaution. However, I have not seen this mentioned outside opposition newspapers and news sources (take with a grain of salt).

Zimbabwe Domestic Monitoring Returns – Get ‘Em While They’re Hot

For those waiting with baited breath for the results of Saturday’s presidential vote in Zimbabwe -

Keep waiting. In the meantime, the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) released a press statement this afternoon with the results of its Sample Based Observation – essentially a parallel vote tabulation by a more regime-acceptable name – based on officially posted results from a random sample of polling stations, weighted to account for the country’s urban/rural divide. ZESN is a group of 38 domestic civil society organizations in Zimbabwe, which has monitored elections and conducted democracy-building activites in the country since 2000.

The SBO results show opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC in the lead with 49.4% of the vote, coming out ahead of 28-year ruler Robert Mugabe with 41.8%. Simba Makoni, a recent challenger within Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party, comes in a distant third with 8.2%.

ZESN’s numbers indicate that a fair and accurate official vote count will lead to a run-off between Mr. Tsvangirai and Mr. Mugabe, as neither appears to have managed to capture greater than 50% of the vote. Whether or not the official election results (still unreleased by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission at the time of this posting) will reflect the monitors’  findings remains to be seen.

ZESN’s statement should be available online soon at www.zesn.org.zw. It does not reference results for the simultaneously-held local or parliamentary elections.

Zimbabwe’s Heating Up

Tensions are rising in Zimbabwe ahead of Saturday’s presidential elections. For those of us who have not been following (and I wasn’t until Tom Melia gave each member of our class ZWD$10,000,000 – for use before June 30th only), Zimbabweans will go to the polls to choose between three candidates in what will hopefully be the country’s most free and fair elections to date. The favorite, of course, still has to be Robert Mugabe, who has led the governing party, Zanu-PF, since the 1980s. Per Freedom House, 2006 was a bad year for opponents of Mugabe, who faced increasing repression, and Zimbabweans altogether, whose economy has rendered my ZWD$10,000,000 worth little more than 30 cents – and that only temporarily.

But the Zimbabwean political terrain has undergone some interesting changes over the past few weeks. Simba Makoni, a former finance minister and member of the Zanu-PF politburo, recently announced that he will run against Mugabe in the presidential election. Makoni has the support of a sizable faction within Zanu-PF, and it remains to be seen how this very public split in the party will impact not only the elections, but the future capacity of the party to maintain a united facade.

Meanwhile, as Mugabe remains preoccupied with Makoni, Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC have found more room to manuever. Tsvangirai supporters have been wearing campaign t-shirts, illegal in the past, and have been carrying neat little flyers that fold into little red cards that symbolize the ejection of Mugabe from the political pitch. As the BBC profile link above clearly suggests, Tsvangirai is no George Washington. However, the hope is that he’s no Robert Mugabe either and that the balance of competition between MDC and Zanu-PF will compel Zimbabwean politicians to be more accountable for their actions.

Whether or not the elections will be allowed to run their course is another unknown. Events over the past week suggest that Mugabe may be preparing to save his presidency the old-fashioned way. Yesterday, the MDC accused the government of printing 3 million excess ballots and over 600,000 mail-in ballots for just a few thousand soldiers and police officers who work away from home. Today, an MDC candidate and his adviser were arrested while picking up campaign materials.

The likelihood of a candidate gaining a majority in Saturday’s vote appear slim, so we could be headed for a runoff. It’s going to be a long next week in Zimbabwe and it could be a very long election season.

Democracy Daily Briefing – 7.4.07

Africa Union Talks Go No Where

A summit regarding the establishment of a single African state ended this week with little accomplished. Few expected any meaningful agreement to arise from the talks and they were not disappointed. The group agreed to set a time table to discuss a future continent-wide agreement. Disagreements exist over whether the pan-African organization should be limited to economic integration or seek a larger political arrangement.

Stores Empty as Zimbabwe Implements Price Controls

Mugabe’s government began to crack down this week on stores and merchants that failed to implement the price controls announced last week. Stores have begun to run out of supplies as people have taken advantage of the artificially low prices. Over twenty shop keepers have been arrested for not complying with the orders. These orders are unsustainable in the long-run and shortages may lead to increased unrest.

Elections in Conflict Areas Are Invalid

Jarrett Blanc of the Council on Foreign Relations and the US Institute of Peace gave an interesting interview to Radio Free Europe about the validity of elections in conflict situations. An important feature that Blanc returns to is the absence of the rule of law in the electoral environment. Furthermore, consideration of the broader context of the conflict and that elections may destabilize or alter the balance in a dangerous manner, especially when the legal institutions necessary for a rule of law are nonexistent. This is a very interesting read.

Democracy Daily Brief – 7.3.07

Snap Elections in Kazakhstan

The Jamestown Foundations’ Eurasia Daily Monitor covers the snap elections recently called in Kazakhstan. In May 2007 President Nazarbayev pressed through constitutional changes that increased the number of members in each chamber of the Kazakh legislature, shortened the presidential term from seven-years to five years, removed term limits on the first president of Kazakhstan, which just so happens to President Nazarbayev.

According to the new constitutional changes, the lower chamber (Majilis) will be elected according by a PR voting system. While this new system may facilitate the creation of new political parties, the Kazakh legislature is still beholden to the whims of the president as he can disband it at any time and many of the Majilis’ powers have been transfered to the Senate and the Senate will assume all of the Majilis’ responsibilities when it is dissolved by the president. Kazakhstan has requested that the OSCE send an observation mission for the elections.

In an odd move, the Majilis petitioned the president to dissolve itself so that it may stand for election according to the new system. The next election is scheduled for August 18 and 20, catching opposition groups and parties by surprise and will be unable any resemblance of a challenge to Nazarbayev’s  Nur Otan Party which enjoys access to state resources. The developments in Kazakhstan are a good illustration of seemingly democratic reforms which actually bolster  incumbent executives and do little to resolve deeper systemic issues.

Pakistani Chief Justice Wins Important Ruling

The  Pakistani Chief Justice Chaudhry received an important win in is ongoing legal struggle against President Musharraf. Musharraf dismissed the chief justice in May under charges of misconduct; the chief justice has vigorously fought the charges. In a ruling yesterday, the court dismissed a large portion of the Musharraf government’s evidence and ordered a sweep of all court buildings and all justices’ homes for listening devices and other spy equipment. Reportedly, the government’s evidence file contained information gather by the Pakistani intelligence service.

In two related items, there are new reports that President General Musharraf may officially decide to step down as head of the army in October before he stands for reelection. Musharraf has served as both president and head of the army since the coup in 1999, it is constitutional to hold both positions in Pakistan. Also, the US may reportedly back the return to power of former Prime Minister Bhutto. Bhutto, the first female prime minister of a Muslim country, may be a way for a negotiated transition for Musharraf who may seek to stay on as president with Bhutto returning to seek the prime minister position.

“Foreigners Should Remove Mugabe”

A Catholic Archbishop in Zimbabwe stated publicly that Britain or other foreign powers should intervene in the increasingly dismal situation in Zimbabwe to remove Robert Mugabe. The declaration is a ratcheting up of rhetoric from the Catholic church in Zimbabwe which released a letter in May criticizing the regime. After the previous letter, Mugabe warned the Catholic church that it would be in a precarious situation if it become too political. We’ll see what type of response Mugabe follows up with.